THE UN Security Council has directed that Iran suspend its nuclear enrichment program within the next seven days. It now looks almost certain that Teheran will do no such thing. On Monday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, stated that his country would not stop its development program. Yet 48 hours later, the country’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, offered “serious talks” with the five permanent council members — China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA — plus Germany. Larijani said that the six had been sent detailed proposals. Almost immediately, however, the French said that the document offered absolutely nothing to talk about.
In the subtle language of diplomacy, it seems the Iranians are prepared to talk seriously, but only about the assistance package offered to them to develop peaceful nuclear power. In the meantime, they have no intention of suspending their nuclear enrichment program.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice broke off her holiday to hurry back to Washington to study the Iranian proposals. The predictably aggressive impulses of the Bush administration will want a fresh resolution, trying to punish Teheran with sanctions. Fortunately the Russians and the Chinese will not go along with this and, despite the clear unwillingness of Iran to abide by Security Council resolution 1969, were last night insisting that the only way out of this crisis is by talking. They will rightly argue that in the end, the Aug. 31 deadline is irrelevant. What matters more is that the standoff be solved peacefully with the minimum provocation or threat of further instability in the Middle East.
Privately, however, there may be wry smiles in Moscow and Beijing that the major victim of provocation has been Washington. A startling report released yesterday by the establishment UK foreign policy think tank, Chatham House, asserts that everything that the Americans have done in the Middle East could not have been better calculated to make Iran stronger. The US swept away two enemies, the Taleban and Saddam Hussein, on either side of Iran and now, by confronting Iran on the nuclear issue, has unleashed patriotic protest that has secured the internal political position of what was becoming an increasingly unpopular government.
Iran also has an internationally strong position. Its influence with Hezbollah and, more importantly for the Americans, its pivotal relationship with the Shiite militias in Iraq could be used to create yet more trouble for President Bush, particularly in Iraq. On top of this, while Washington thunders and threatens and refuses to rule out the use of force against Iranian nuclear facilities, Teheran can look to support from the Russians who, as close neighbors, perhaps have more to fear from Iranian nuclear weapons than the United States.
At the moment it looks as if the Iranians are in a win-win position while the Americans, thanks to the bovine behavior of Bush and his administration, are once again in a lose-lose position.
