WASHINGTON, 28 September 2006 — The war in Iraq is breeding deep resentment of the US that is likely to get worse before it gets better, federal intelligence analysts conclude in a report which is at odds with President George Bush’s talk of a world growing safer. A portion of the hard-hitting report was declassified and released Monday on Bush’s orders after leaks caused an uproar over findings that seemed so out of step with the administration’s reassurances.
Democratic lawmakers Tuesday pushed the White House to release the full text of a previously secret intelligence assessment on terrorism, not just the key judgments, saying Americans deserve the “full story.”
The assessment is a combined report from intelligence analysts from 16 federal agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency. Compiled from the judgments of top US analysts, the document concludes that despite serious damage to the leadership of Al-Qaeda, the threat from Islamic extremists has spread both in numbers and in geographic reach. Excerpts from a National Intelligence Assessment report that a backlash from the Iraq War is spreading terrorist cells worldwide, posing a threat to the United States.
The four-page report was published on the website of the Director of National Intelligence: Excerpts labeled as “key judgments” from an April National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) say, “We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the homeland.” While the NIE cites the Iraq war as the “cause celebre” for jihadists, “breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement,” what it doesn’t say is that before and beyond Iraq, a movement grew because of fundamental US policies.
Bush and his top advisers have said the formerly classified assessment of global terrorism supported their arguments that the world is safer because of the war. More than three pages of stark judgments that warn of the spread of terror contrasted with the administration’s glass-half-full declarations.
“If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide,” the document says. “The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.”
The intelligence assessment has stirred a heated election-season argument over the course of US national security in the years since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.
Virtually all assessments of the current situation were bad. The report’s few positive notes were couched in conditional terms, depending on successful completion of difficult tasks ahead for the US and its allies. In one example, analysts concluded that more responsive political systems in Muslim nations could erode support for militants.
Bush ordered a declassified portion of the secret report released after several days of criticism sparked by sections that were leaked to the news media during the weekend.
Asked about those yesterday, Bush said critics who believe the Iraq war has worsened terrorism are naïve and mistaken. “To suggest that if we weren’t in Iraq we would see a rosier scenario, with fewer extremists joining the radical movement, requires us to ignore 20 years of experience,” Bush said.
Other portions of the document said:
— The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of Al-Qaeda in Iraq might lead the terror group’s veteran foreign fighters to refocus their efforts outside that country.
— While Iran and Syria are the most active state sponsors of terror, many other countries will be unable to prevent their resources from being exploited by terrorists.
The NIE goes on to say that “four underlying factors” are fueling “the spread of the jihadist movement”.
They are: — Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
— The Iraq ‘jihad;
— The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
— Pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims -- all of which jihadists exploit.
