Four years on, as the anniversary of the US-led invasion is marked this week, there is growing insecurity in Iraq. There has been a rise in ethnic strife as well as increasing protests in the United States demanding an end to the war which began with the US promising the world to topple Saddam Hussein with tactics that would “shock and awe.” What Washington has achieved is utter desolation and despair in Iraq which is leaving both the Americans and the rest of the world completely shocked and awed.
The pessimism about the future of Iraq stems from the fact that there seems to be no clear search for a policy that will bring about an end to a war based on a lie — nonexistent weapons of mass destruction — while also safeguarding Iraq’s interests.
Instead, we see US President George W. Bush calling for a surge in troop numbers amid opposition from the Democrat-controlled Congress which in turn is looking for how to institute a US withdrawal by September 2008. Congress’ move has hit turbulence as the White House states that such deadlines would leave Iraq in a deeper quagmire and also a safe haven for terrorists. The White House is pinning its hopes on the risky option that if the troops succeed, then the US has Iraq as an ally in the war on terror.
While the debate rages in the US, which is seeing an increase in anti-war demonstrations, Iraqis themselves have given the thumbs down to the US presence in their country. A survey released on the eve of the fourth anniversary, shows that fewer than one in five have faith in the US-led coalition. The survey, contrasting with one two years ago, indicated that barely a quarter — 26 percent — feel safe in their own neighborhoods. Only 18 percent of those polled have confidence in the US and the coalition troops while some 78 percent opposed the presence of coalition forces and 69 percent said their presence worsened the security situation. Faith in the new Iraqi government was a little better, although hardly overwhelming: 53 percent were dissatisfied with the performance of the Iraqi government.
Even the lessons that others have drawn from Iraq do not strike the US as obvious, especially the risks of pre-emptive war, the need to challenge intelligence estimates and the disadvantages of acting without full allied support. Multilateralism and UN authorization provide a moral basis while unilateralism should be a last resort. But how Iraq evolves will fundamentally shape the region and deeply affect US security and standing in the world.
Reassessment of the situation in Iraq and the consequent actions by regional and global powers on how best they can help Iraq recover is the need of the hour. After four years, the situation in Iraq is dire. The cost of lives — to both members of the coalition of the willing and Iraqis themselves — has been immense and tragic. This is in addition to the price paid, and still being paid, diplomatically by the Americans and a tragic loss of opportunity resulting from their poorly planned misadventure.
