WHATEVER spin the British may be putting on the release of their 15 naval personnel, 13 days after their detention by Revolutionary Guard vessels in the Gulf, the whole incident has become a triumph for the Iranians. The individual introduction of each sailor to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shortly before their release was an outstanding final theatrical coup.
It seems clear, however, that the Iranians have been interested in far more than photo opportunities for their president. They appear to have been working on two fronts. The first has been tactical. Six Iranian officials were seized in Iraq, five of them by US forces who denied Iranian claims that the officials were diplomats and insisted instead that they were intelligence officers fomenting further violence by Shiite militias. The sixth Iranian, apparently a middle-ranking diplomat, was kidnapped in Baghdad in February. This Tuesday, that diplomat, Jalal Sharafi was freed and walked into the embassy. The suspicion is surely that Sharafi was actually an intelligence officer operating under diplomatic cover. His kidnap was probably organized by the Americans and his release thus looks very much like part of a swap for the 15 Britons. Americans in both Baghdad and Washington have been vigorous in their denials that any such deal was made. The focus will now turn to the other five Iranians whose release the Iraq government says it is attempting to bring about. Of greater importance, however, are the strategic gains won by Tehran. Before yesterday’s dramatic events, senior Iranian figures indicated that they had reached an arrangement with the British on the policing of the still-disputed Iraqi waters. This may well include regular British liaison with Iranian coastal patrols. Tehran may thus have been granted a formal role in the coalition’s Iraq operations. At the same time, of far greater interest to Iran is their relationship with the multiparty Iraqi government.
Iran has been glad to add to Washington’s deep troubles in Iraq. But Tehran shares with the rest of the region the fear of the political break-up of Iraq. The growing power of the two main Shiite militias has been threatening Iraq’s continued unity. Iran undoubtedly wants to rein them in. The problem was that such a move would be claimed a victory by Bush. It can be expected therefore that the release of the remaining five Iranians will be conducted on a bilateral basis — between Baghdad and Tehran. The message to Washington will be that Iran will be a good neighbor to Iraq but maintain its demand that the Americans get out.
With the Iraqi government and US operations apparently reducing the activity of Shiite militias, the challenge now is to confront Al-Qaeda and the remaining Baathist insurgents. If some of the latter groups conclude deals to cease their attacks and the Iraqi government can at last show real progress on the security front, the US will be robbed of a key excuse to stay on “until the job is done.”
Iran has won a significant victory this week. Bush must accept and build upon it rather than vow revenge.
