So far so reasonably good. As Africa’s most populous nation completes the voting for its gubernatorial positions the reports of some thugs stealing the voting slips in the delta, some intimidation elsewhere, and the late arrival of the ballot papers in quite a few places suggest that that is not bad for an underdeveloped country of 160, 000 million people.
Nigeria gets a bad press. Only one major Western paper, the Financial Times, maintains a full time correspondent there. The New York Times wrote its curtain raiser on the election a month ago from the safe haven of Senegal. CNN and Vanity Fair have had a field day persuading the gun men of the oil-rich delta to allow them to follow them around whilst they steal oil, buy speed boats and military hardware and pull off the trick that terrorists do everywhere too often, of convincing the press that power grows out of the barrel of a gun.
It doesn’t. And neither does electoral violence that kills for 20-70 people (take your pick on the estimates) in one of the world’s largest countries mean the end is nigh.
So far the only surprise in the first part of the election is that the ruling People’s Democratic Party has done so well. After visiting the country almost every year during the tenure of Obasanjo I had become convinced that his popularity was on a steady decline. Obasanjo’s reforms have been mainly in the macro arena, which at this stage have done little or nothing for the average person — unemployment and crime are up, schools and clinics are even more run down, electricity supplies are deteriorating. The malaise is so deep-rooted that Nigerians’ traditional cynicism about the self-interest of the political class has plumbed new depths. Despite Obasanjo’s rather effective campaign against corruption many of those I interviewed believe Obasanjo himself is corrupt. Even his decision to ask the prosecuting agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, to investigate his own economic assets, has not dampened the talk. I have read the detailed report on its detailed investigation — in which, for example, they asked Interpol to run a world wide check on his credit card activities, in which it came up with zilch — and am convinced of his integrity.
The reforms have been painful. Two successive finance ministers — both women — have kicked hard against the old rubrics. They have pruned the bureaucracy, privatized, rooted out corruption, paid off or won relief for Nigeria’s enormous debt overhang. Reserves now stand at $41 billion and foreign investment is increasing significantly. The airports and docks are barely recognizable from the chaotic state of eight years ago. According to the IMF, the country is now well on the road to repeating the Asian miracle of the 1980s. Economic growth regularly hits 7 percent. While the oil sector has been hit by the violence of the delta, the nonoil sector has grown even better at 8 percent. Obasanjo told me, “If we had no oil we would be going just as fast, without all the trouble oil brings.”
Obviously the political campaigning has had some effect in convincing voters that the government has laid some good foundations that will lead not just to continued economic growth but more employment and better schools, roads and clinics. Obasanjo, who secretly coveted a third term, but was outmaneuvered by Congress, has cleverly boosted as his successor a man opposite to him in almost every imaginable way. Obasanjo is a fervent Christian from the south. Umar Yar’Adua is a fervent Muslim, from the north. Obasanjo is charismatic, worldly wise and loves to dress in flowing robes. Yar’Adua is softly spoken, shy, provincial (he has only traveled abroad three times — twice for the Haj and once for a quick health check up in Germany) and dresses in a simple smock and sandals. He has a reputation for being one of the few governors untainted by corruption.
One of the important legacies of Obasanjo is that he has managed to quieten down the violent Muslim/Christian clashes that before him and in his first couple of years were tearing the country apart. Yar’Adua’s attitude bodes well for the future. “All religions are corrupted,” he told me, “ but all religions are about love, kindness, justice and tolerance.”
Right now it looks as if he will be Nigeria’s next president.
