THE POLITICAL focus in the United States today revolves around two topics — the 2008 presidential campaign and Iraq. Yet with the election still 18 months away and the solution to the Iraqi imbroglio far from clear, there remain at least ten other issues — mostly involving foreign policy — in which US policy appears frozen or reactive which could greatly alter both US policy and the broader geopolitical climate.
Of course, no issue looms larger than Iraq. Even proponents of President Bush’s “surge option” — including Defense Secretary Robert Gates — concede that the plan has thus far had limited success. Critics are less polite, particularly after the recent bombing of the Iraqi parliament building. This week Congress is poised to approve legislation providing additional funds for the war, but would require Baghdad to meet benchmarks lest US troops withdraw. Bush will veto the legislation, and Congress ultimately will provide him the funding he needs to perpetuate the status quo. But Bush’s victory will be of the pyrrhic variety — further weakening his public standing and simultaneously damaging his party’s prospects in the 2008 elections. Iraq is only the tip of the iceberg. Bush and his Republican allies continue to be dogged by ethics inquiries which limit the White House’s ability to conduct foreign and domestic policy. Last week two Republican members of Congress were raided by the FBI. World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz and Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez are being pressured to resign for alleged misuse of power. This week a special investigator began looking at possible legal violations by Bush appointees at the General Accounting Office. Meanwhile, former White House insider Scooter Libby awaits sentencing for perjury.
In the Middle East, problems abound. The Bush administration’s support for regional democracy has placed Egypt under the Washington microscope. Congress will hold a heated debated over whether to continue to support the $2 billion annual assistance package to Cairo. Critics believe Cairo has been unwilling to promote meaningful reform, and has further clamped down on domestic opponents of both the secular and Islamic variety. More recently, liberal proponents of democracy, discounting the example of Hamas, have begun pressing Egypt to legalize the Muslim Brotherhood — despite the party’s alleged anti-Americanism and opposition to the Arab-Israeli peace process. With Israel altering its own assistance package and distancing itself from the Camp David formula, Egypt can no longer rely on the support of Jewish legislators — who long backed aid in exchange for peace with Israel.
The US-Turkish relationship, strong since 1948, is under considerable strain. Recently the Turkish military announced it is considering invading Kurdish-occupied northern Iraq, a move which would further destabilize the country and trigger American condemnation. Turkey, which is in the process of recalibrating its foreign policy, feels Washington has ignored its interests in Iraq; Turks see the Kurds as a grave threat. Congress is also expected to pass a resolution declaring the Ottoman-era atrocities against Armenians as “genocide.” Ankara has threatened punitive measures should the bill pass, which could include kicking the US military out of the country.
Despite months of stalemate, the precarious standoff in Lebanon seems no closer to a peaceful resolution. Lebanese factions have, in fact, hardened their positions in support of or opposition to a UN tribunal over the Rafik Hariri assassination. But there is much more at stake than the inquiry. The Lebanese impasse involves the composition of the sectarian-based government, Syria, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Despite this, there has been little public effort put forth by the White House to broker a deal which satisfies all parties, or lures Syria into peace talks with Israel.
The Bush administration seems unable to decide its own policy toward Iran. While Vice President Che ney and the remaining neo-conservatives continue to rattle sabers, Secretary of State Rice is trying to engage Tehran during regional conferences on Iraq. Rice has stated that should Iran offer constructive ideas, the US is willing to talk about “anything.”
In Africa, President Bush supports imposing new sanctions on Sudan over the crisis in Darfur. But despite the increased pressure on Khartoum — which has come in vogue with the assistance of Hollywood celebrities — the US continues to send a mixed message. Bush’s rhetorical attack comes at the same time US intelligence agencies, principally the CIA, have increased cooperation with the Bashir government, seen as a key ally in the war on terror.
No one has proffered any credible solution to morass in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s occupation of Somalia was seen as the least bad option available. But despite US support for the invasion, Ethiopia seems no more likely to stabilize Mogadishu than the UN’s attempts in the 1990s, which resulted in an embarrassing US retreat and sucked Somalia’s neighbors into the conflict. Elsewhere, the coup of bringing Tripoli back into the diplomatic fold appears in jeopardy in Washington due to a combination of unresolved legal issues and the Libyan president’s erratic behavior. The image of Nigeria, once seen as an emerging democracy in Africa’s most populace nation, has been sullied over its recent election.
Finally, the Bush administration’s trade promotion agenda is in peril. Not only is the White House facing opposition from congressional Democrats, but risks losing diplomatic face after brokering a free trade agreement with South Korea which Congress may reject.
Despite the American public’s focus, there is much more going on in the world than the upcoming presidential election and Iraq. Failing to address these ten issues, for example, could gravely damage US interests and further diminish its global influence.
— David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group. E-mail: [email protected].
