JEDDAH, 14 May 2007 — The electoral victory of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a party which champions the rights of India’s Dalits — formerly untouchables in Hinduism’s stratified caste system — in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh has taken many by surprise as it belied all poll predictions and surveys. The much sought after pollsters have ended up, once again, with egg on their face after their predictions proved way off the mark.
Defying all predictions and exit polls the BSP won an absolute majority by capturing 206 seats out of 402 in the state assembly.
The UP results once again prove that the caste equation is a major factor in any election in the Hindi-heartland. BSP leader Mayawati’s electoral gains can be attributed to the support from Muslims and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in addition to the Dalits. A small majority of disillusioned upper caste voters also added to the party’s impressive tally.
Results show Mayawati made considerable gains in places where Muslims and non-Yadav OBCs dominate. Vote break-up shows a majority of the Brahmins voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with only 12 percent of them favoring the BSP and the Congress.
Muslims heavily voted for the BSP, deserting the ruling Samajwadi Party of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav. And the outcome was that one in two Muslims fielded by the BSP won as the party tasted success in several other Muslim-dominated constituencies across the state.
Assiduously wooing Muslims to expand her base beyond the Dalits, Brahmins and upper castes, Mayawati’s strategy worked with 30 of the 61 Muslim candidates emerging victorious. In 2002, only 14 Muslims had won on BSP ticket.
Furthermore, Muslim support helped BSP win several other assembly seats much to the surprise of political observers who felt that after her alleged anti-Muslim utterances before elections, the community would turn against her.
The results, however, proved them wrong as BSP nominees registered victories in Muslim-dominated constituencies of Afzalgarh, Bijnore, Chandpur, Kanth, Hasanpur, Bahjoi, Kundarki and Bhojipura in the central region.
BSP’s winning streak in the Muslim-dominated areas continued in the eastern parts as well. BSP candidates won Nanpara, Kaiserganj, Gaisari, Gonda, Dumariyaganj and Khesaraha.
So, to say that Mayawati’s triumph is the outcome of the so-called “social engineering” and upper caste support is a pathetic attempt to deny Muslims any role in BSP’s resounding victory.
Muslims in post-Babri Mosque elections always voted for Mulayam’s party, and this time too they were likely to rally behind him. But from the experience of previous elections, the minority community has learned the art of “tactical voting,” with the objective being the defeat of the rabidly Hindu BJP.
The reason for the total alienation of the minorities from Mulayam was a widespread perception that his government had a tacit understanding with the BJP, though Mulayam always denied it. But when his government failed, despite repeated requests from the Central Bureau of Investigation to approve the filing of a second charge sheet against BJP leader L.K. Advani in the Babri Masjid demolition case, it became clear to the community that he has entered into some sort of understanding with the BJP, the party behind the demolition of the mosque.
Adding to Mulayam’s woes was a growing feeling among the people of the state that the government under Mulayam cannot be trusted. Some of the SP old-timers’ desertion due to the undue interference by party General Secretary Amar Singh and his business cronies also proved costly to the party. Mayawati had started her preparations meticulously keeping in view all these developments.
One significant trend that emerged from the UP Assembly elections is that most parties are now trying to woo social groups outside their traditional support base. The BSP best embodied this strategy by successfully mobilizing a section of the upper castes that were always opposed to her Dalit support base.
In fact, Mayawati had launched her Dalit-Brahmin experiment two years before there was any talk of elections in UP. Most of the upper caste candidates had been finalized even before she addressed the “Brahmin Maharally” last year. However, Dalits would continue to occupy a predominant position in her government.
Mayawati’s refusal to have any prepoll alliance with any party projected the BSP as a serious player out to play the game with a killer instinct. The die was cast.
The Election Commission’s firmness in ensuring free and fair polls also helped the BSP as its detractors were unable to influence the voters through muscle power.
The UP outcome is worrisome for the national parties as the BSP supremo has not shied away from declaring that her gazes are fixed on Delhi. No wonder. There is a saying that the road to Raisina Hill, the prime minister’s office in New Delhi, starts from Lucknow, the state capital. After all eight of India’s 14 prime ministers have come from Uttar Pradesh which has a population of 170 million.
