THE decision of the United Nations to extend its mission in Iraq is extremely welcome — in principle. The question remains, however, whether the extension will have any immediate effect. The UN staff association is reluctant to see the existing mission expanded from 65 to 95. And who can blame them? Four years ago in the Al-Qaeda attack on the UN’s Baghdad headquarters, 22 people perished including the organization’s local chief, Sergio Viera de Mello.
Nonetheless in the long term, this decision is important. One day the violence will end and Iraqis will throw out the Al-Qaeda bigots who have been slaughtering merely to provoke inter-communal enmity and distrust. At that point, despite Iraq’s oil wealth, the country will need all the help it can get to put itself back on its feet. And that help can come only from the international community in the form of the UN.
The Bush adventure in Iraq is reaching its inevitable humiliating end. The surge has had a marginal effect, notably in terms of killing or capturing some senior Al-Qaeda leaders. There are some clear signs that outside the US and Iraqi troop concentrations, the violence has sprung up with the same virulence. Indeed, rival Shiite gangs in the south of the country appear to be vying with each other to see who can inflict the greatest damage on British troops in the area. Sensing that the new Labour government of Gordon Brown is looking to disengage from Tony Blair’s war on behalf of his good friend President Bush, the Shiites are increasing their attacks. They are assuming that the British commanders have little appetite for continuing to take the fight to them — as they did six months ago, when they raided police stations which they claimed were under the control of Shiite militants. This week has seen high British casualties which will doubtless encourage the insurgents. It remains to be seen if the UK military will deploy the tactic that the best form of defense is attack.
What is happening in the south of the country is sure to be duplicated elsewhere when Washington announces the date for its own withdrawal. But the Coalition is in truth no longer relevant. Part of the problem it may still be but it is no longer part of the solution. The Maliki government may be fractured but it is not totally broken. It and the constitution under which it is working have been endorsed by the vast majority of Iraqis in free and fair elections, held successfully despite the threats from the men of violence. Without fresh elections, no party, including the majority Shiites can claim a political mandate.
The UN’s reinvigorated presence in Iraq should be a spur to all Iraqis and their elected representatives to find a way forward that embraces all citizens, regardless of their community. The irony is that the Security Council decision to boost its Iraq mission was eagerly supported by Washington. Five years ago, as Bush prepared for invasion, the UN was pushed aside. Now America needs it to help it escape the results of its own ill-considered folly.
