The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on Thursday, Dec. 27, 2007, strongly condemned by the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait, is bound to have implications for the Gulf states in terms of security.
Pakistan’s long standing relations with the Gulf states have been marked by close and wide-ranging cooperation in security and political matters, economic investments and trade. The first and foremost factor that would be of the utmost concern to the region in the aftermath of the assassination is the security situation in Pakistan. This is particularly important in terms of economic linkages as well as a matter of grave concern due to Pakistan’s stature as the only Islamic nuclear power state. Bordering a conflict-ridden Afghanistan and an ambitious Iran, the developments on Pakistan’s security and political scene are closely followed by regional states because instability and insecurity in the country will have far reaching implications for the entire region.
The worsening situation in Afghanistan and the Al-Qaeda-Taleban presence in Pakistan along with the spread of extremism and suicide attacks across the country, clearly an Al-Qaeda import, are matters causing much worry.
Though geographically separate, Iraq and Afghanistan are both theaters the Al-Qaeda is actively engaged in. The success of their techniques in Iraq has encouraged them to import them into both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The assassination was another tumultuous event in Pakistan’s turbulent political history.
On the eve of elections scheduled in early January 2008, the country reeled in shock after the assassination of the former prime minister and leader of one of the biggest political parties, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). World attention has been focused on the country in the wake of the controversies surrounding the assassination regarding the mode of killing, possible cause of death and identity of the assassins as well as the plotters. Every new report has brought in a new angle.
The government’s claims of the assassination having been carried out by the Taleban leader Baitullah Mehsud in association with the Al-Qaeda have reportedly been denied by Mehsud’s spokesman on Dec. 29.
Though it is not confirmed yet, it is likely that the Al-Qaeda was involved and had the operation carried out by some affiliated Pakistan militant organization.
The well-planned attack bears the fingerprint of the Al-Qaeda in its planning and execution which itself was a double act that involved shooting and detonation of the suicide vest by the attacker. One news agency reported that a leading Al-Qaeda commander claimed responsibility of the attack because “she was an American asset.”
Mehsud’s denial of the attack can also be viewed as a deliberate negation in order not to lose support among the people in Pakistan in the face of the massive nationwide grief and outrage following the assassination. Bhutto had been issuing strong statements and had taken up the fight against the extremists as part of her comeback agenda.
Though President Musharraf is also on the Al-Qaeda hit list and has faced multiple assassination attempts, Bhutto was viewed as a US protégé who was being fully and publicly supported by Washington which had expressed a desire to see her returning to power and working with Musharraf after the next elections. Despite escaping an earlier attempt that targeted her in October in Karachi, in which more than 130 people were killed, Bhutto continued with her anti terrorism rhetoric and public meetings as part of the election campaign.
While the truth about the assassination remains shrouded in ambiguities and may never be found, Pakistan has to come to grips with the implications, which are expected to be wide ranging and long term. Mishandling of the situation has caused violent protests by outraged party workers and supporters.
This situation of unrest could be exploited by anti-state forces who would like to see a further deterioration in the fragile law and order situation pushing Pakistan back toward emergency and martial law. Due to the close relations between Pakistan and the Gulf states the political and military leadership in Pakistan have always closely consulted their Gulf counterparts on matters of mutual interests; the leadership has been particularly concerned about the major conflicts and issues facing the Gulf and Middle East including Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestine issue, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and bid to extend its regional influence besides the transnational threat of terrorism as well as Islamic extremism.
The Gulf states which host millions of Pakistan expatriates have, in the past few years, enhanced their economic ties with some major investments in Pakistan in energy and telecommunications, besides real estate development amounting to billions of dollars.
The fact that two major political leaders and former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto both chose to spend their periods of exile (forced and self imposed) in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is testament to the high level of comfort that exists between the states. In fact, the UAE and Saudi leadership is said to have played a key role in mediating the return of the exiled leaders to Pakistan. Besides hosting Pakistan opposition leaders, the Gulf states have also maintained close relations with the decision makers in Pakistan’s political and military circles.
Though the truth behind the assassination might never emerge unless the Al-Qaeda confirms its role and involvement, the fact remains that Bhutto was a target even before her return from exile. She had categorically stated that in case she was elected to power she would allow airstrikes by international forces within Pakistan in case the government was unable to hunt down the Taleban and Al-Qaeda leaders and if given solid proof of their presence.
It is clear that a further deterioration of the security situation in Pakistan could only lead to a collapse that is bound to have an adverse fallout on an already mired Afghanistan. The fallout of such a collapse, it is feared, will not only be confined to Pakistan but will also affect the neighboring Gulf region. The Gulf states hope that Pakistan will come to grips with its current predicament with a firmness and resolve and not be deterred by the success of such terror tactics. It is in the interest of the Gulf states to see a strong government in Pakistan along with strong military and security institutions. It is hoped that Pakistan’s political and military leadership as well as all the political parties will reach a consensus and work towards a stable and secure environment.
— Faryal Leghari is a researcher specialist in Security & Terrorism Studies at the Gulf Research Center.
