People in the Balkans face a stark choice this year: their region could either finally resolve its outstanding problems from the wars of the 1990s or fall back into instability and extremes of nationalism. The first option would take them forward toward stability, prosperity and European integration. But many commentators believe the second is inevitable.
I disagree with the prophecies of doom. There is certainly a danger of instability, at the moment when Kosovo’s future status is on the point of being resolved. But the repercussions need not be destabilizing if the EU gives a decisive and unified steer to ensure a coordinated response.
In fact, all the countries could make faster progress along the road to Europe. By the end of this year, I hope they will all pass through the gateway toward candidacy for membership, by signing a stabilization and association agreement with the EU. Albania and Montenegro have already done so, as has the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which could soon demonstrate its readiness to begin accession negotiations if it can maintain sufficient political will and cross-party dialogue to drive through serious reforms.
The doomsday prophecies for Bosnia and Herzegovina have so far been proven wrong. The country’s leaders made important progress last year on police reform, with the goal of ensuring the rule of law and separating policing from politics. There is much at stake in Serbia. The EU should give a strong signal of Serbia’s European future by deciding to sign the stabilization and association agreement shortly. Serbia is close to full cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, which is essential to allow the country to turn the page on one of the darkest periods in its history.
The EU is ready to welcome the citizens of Serbia into Europe, not just through a contractual relationship with their state, but also individually. This is demonstrated by the commission’s launch of a dialogue on visa-free travel for Serbs that will start this week.
The future for the Balkans can be far from dark. In the EU, there has never been a stronger political will to support the people of the western Balkans in opting for European values and living standards. But ultimately people in the region have to exercise their democratic choice to determine their countries’ future course.
— Olli Rehn is the European commissioner responsible for enlargement and is the author of Europe’s Next Frontiers.
