The likely outcome of Pakistan’s election ought to become clear today with the final result being declared tomorrow. And the outcome will not be confined to which candidate has won which seat. The losers, certainly if they include the three opposition parties, are sure to protest the voting has been rigged. And there seems a good chance that they will be right. There will also be complaints that what seems to have been an extremely low turnout by voters too afraid or disillusioned to express a preference has distorted the outcome and, therefore, the result does not reflect the preferences of the 80 million eligible electors.
If, however, either the Pakistan People’s Party, led by Benazir Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari and their son, or the Muslim League of former Premier Nawaz Sharif wins any sort of plausible mandate, another outcome can also be predicted with some confidence — all past talk of the two parties working together for a stable democratic future for Pakistan will fly out the window. The records show the PPP and the Muslim League have ever been driven by power which, once gained, they have then used to exclude the opposition. This is thus a fight over who gets to keep the cookie jar and can enhance their power base by distributing patronage to supporters and financial backers.
It is the failure of past governments to foster an efficient civil service and permanent governmental structures that has undermined the growth of political stability. The dominance of unqualified politicians in state-owned industries has robbed the country of the consistent vision needed for economic success. Only in two arguably unfortunate areas, nuclear weaponry and missile development, have the technocrats been given their head with spectacular results.
It is because, under the direction of nine elected governments since the creation of Pakistan 61 years ago, no long-term and consistent work has been undertaken on education, health and welfare that Pakistan is now struggling with the twin powers of violent bigotry and fanaticism. The only organization that has maintained basic standards and generally awarded promotion on the basis of ability rather than favoritism has been the military. Unfortunately, its interventions in the political process have done little to help. As army commander, Pervez Musharraf ousted Nawaz Sharif, promising to clean up the corruption that had disfigured the body politic. Yet the charges against Bhutto, her husband and Sharif did not result in any long-term punishments.
Given this sorry perception of politics whatever the outcome of Monday’s vote, it is likely that all politicians will be maneuvering purely in their own highly partial interests. Pakistan does not need more of this. Its party leaders must wake up to the fact that a genuine new vision, embracing all Pakistanis, needs not just to be talked about but enacted. They have failed for long enough and the country is paying the price. It is long past time for them to change their ways.
