There seems to be something for everybody in the Iranian parliamentary elections. Hard-line allies of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will apparently retain control of the assembly, but his conservative critics also appear to be making a strong showing that could undermine his domination of the Parliament. And reformists also claimed successes, despite the barring of large numbers of their candidates from the race.
Control of Parliament is almost certain to remain with the conservatives. Although the economy is shaky and inflation is disturbingly high, there seems to be little serious opposition to them. It will be a Parliament less likely to challenge the government on matters of foreign and economic policy.
Conservative self-confidence might indicate even less chance of compromise over Iran’s nuclear program. For most people in Iran, the economy is much more important than their government’s nuclear program. But Ahmadinejad’s political opponents blame him for the three rounds of sanctions imposed by the United Nations on Iran for its nuclear program.
As for the reformists, who under President Khatami held substantial power only three years ago, they were supposedly in retreat, if not victims of a positive rout in the elections after many of their candidates were disqualified. But reformists could succeed in expanding their bloc of around 40 lawmakers in the outgoing Parliament, thus landing a blow on hard-line attempts to bury the movement, which calls for reducing the power of clerics and opening up to the West. It was previously thought the election would likely hurt the chances of the reformists putting forward a contender with any hope of winning the next presidential elections. It appears that thought is no longer the case. This election will probably produce a Parliament more loyal, if not to the president, then certainly to the supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who holds the final word on all state issues and who in turn lends his support to Ahmadinejad.
The outcome of the polls might help indicate Ahmadinejad’s prospects for re-election in April 2009. The reasonably strong showing among Ahmadinejad’s critics means he could be given a rougher ride as he prepares to run for re-election in a year’s time. Many of those who put their hopes in Ahmadinejad in the presidential elections nearly three years ago are disillusioned, particularly over his handling of the economy. But the parliamentary vote has not become a referendum on his rule. Ahmadinejad’s allies are on track to grab the largest share of the 290-member Parliament. But what the results could do is encourage a conservative challenge to Ahmadinejad in presidential elections.
This is Iran’s eighth parliamentary elections since the 1979 revolution. During all these years, the reformists — who want both closer ties with the West and an end to the intrusive controls over people’s lives — have battled it out with the conservatives who want to keep to the strict norms. The parliamentary elections ensure that the same struggle will continue.
