Of all the issues tackled by the recently concluded summit of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Dakar — from the Palestinian conflict to Islam in the West to the ratification of a new OIC Charter — yet another Chadian and Sudanese peace agreement was the highlight.
What the accord in practice means for Sudanese President Omar Bashir and his Chadian counterpart Idriss Deby has yet to be spelled out, but there are numerous underlying concerns. The first is governmental incompetence in both Chad and Sudan. Another problem is the demoralization of the populations. This, after all, is the fifth deal signed between the two countries. There is no love lost between the two presidents, and by all accounts the Dakar deal was agreed upon amid much recrimination. The Chadian authorities, in particular, have grave reservations, believing that the Sudanese government is trying hard to undermine the regime in N’Djamena. The Chadians have persistently claimed that the Sudanese government is backing armed opposition groups in Chad, and were directly responsible for last month’s attempt by opposition forces to storm the capital. The Sudanese, on the other hand, counter that the Chadian authorities are instigating the fighting in Darfur, aiding and abetting armed opposition groups. Which is why peace between Sudan and Chad cannot endure without the permanent resolution of the Darfur crisis.
No month passes without shooting in either Chad or Darfur. The ethnic composition in both Darfur and Chad is very similar. Tribes move freely across the extensive and porous common border. The oil-rich countries are still among Africa’s — and the world’s — poorest nations.
There are also tensions related to the exploitation of the resource. Indeed, oil appears to be more of a curse than a boon. Across the border in Chad, French oil multinationals predominate, even though American oil firms have also recently become active in the country. While oil fuels these wars, the humanitarian catastrophe as a result of the war is escalating daily. The armed opposition groups in both Sudan and Chad will not give up their struggle for power in the foreseeable future. They also are determined to enjoy the benefits of the newfound oil wealth.
Confidence for the prospects of democracy in either Chad or Sudan is not great. While the West turns a blind eye to Chad’s human rights record, it is vociferously anti-Sudanese. Strident advocates of human rights in the West hardly mention Chad. The onus is on Sudan where Darfur has become the cause celebre of Western media and governments.
Khartoum and N’Djamena are still digesting the implications of the deal. The deal, like the OIC summit meeting itself, was a qualified success. The Chadian and Sudanese leaders have made giant strides to secure a semblance of peaceful coexistence. However, a big shift toward more friendly bilateral relations is highly unlikely.
