Israel and Syria have just presented George Bush with a golden opportunity to provide a legacy for his presidency. According to news reports, Ehud Olmert passed a message to Bashar Assad (via the Turkish prime minister) that he was willing to return all of the Golan in return for peace. A Syrian newspaper reported the story and a Syrian minister repeated it. When Olmert’s office refused to deny (or confirm) it, it became big news.
This is an opening for peacemaking that no statesman would pass up. Syria has already said that it wants the US to participate in negotiations with Israel. So what are US president and his Secretary of State Condi Rice waiting for? An invitation? If this were Teddy Roosevelt or Jimmy Carter, who won a Nobel prizes for negotiating peace agreements between warring countries, meeting rooms would be reserved and diplomats would be packing their bags. Alas, this administration is not the equal of those. But that shouldn’t stop anyone from forcefully telling Bush that he should do his duty, whether he’s eager to or not.
It is ironic Olmert now feels comfortable acknowledging (tacitly) his willingness to compromise with Syria in return for peace. In my blog, I castigated him roundly last year for his tortuous attempts to deny the validity of negotiations conducted by Alon Liel, the Israeli diplomat with a Syrian interlocutor, in which they succeeded in mapping out the contors of an agreement. Things now have gotten more serious and Olmert has stopped playing the fool.
There is of course one problem: The two countries are negotiating by press release or third parties, instead of face to face. Politicians can say pretty much whatever they want as long as they don’t have to commit to anything. But when you sit down to negotiate in earnest, that’s when you have to get serious.
So what’s stopping them? A weakened Israeli governing coalition, for one. Olmert has a lot of things on his plate, including a right-wing opposition leader breathing down his neck and looking for weakness and opportunities to exploit them. But it is a good sign that Olmert is at least refusing to deny the reports.
Perhaps the most significant impediment to negotiations is the ideological rigidity of the Bush administration. They would rather punish Syria and its ally Iran than do either of them any favors. To Bush-Cheney, peace between Syria and Israel seems too much like a reward that Syria doesn’t deserve. Of course, they neglect how critical peace would be for Israel, the US’ supposed ally. The neocons would rather have a war that bled an ally than a peace that rewarded their foes. It’s called cutting off your friend’s nose to spite his face.
Syria wisely is insisting the US play a role in expediting whatever talks happen. If the former is to give up it protective alliance with Iran, it expects that it will gain something from the US in return. Unfortunately, I seriously doubt the Bush administration is willing or able to play such a role (though former US ambassador to Israel, Martin Indyk has ). This could doom a peace agreement to being stillborn; at least until a new US president takes office. Let’s hope Syria and Israel haven’t gone to war before then.
I have a challenge I’d like to lay down to US-Jewish peace groups and the presidential candidates. Don’t let President Bush mess up this opportunity. Let’s start a campaign to keep his feet to the fire.
Think what could happen if Syria makes peace with Israel. The former might end its military support for Hezbollah. It might shut down its sanctuary for the radical elements of Hamas. It might turn away from its military alliance with Iran. This in turn would further isolate Iran in the Arab world — a goal Bush surely would relish. Peace between Israel and Syria would remove a major irritant in Israeli-Arab relations. The Middle East would become a much safer place.
I haven’t a hope in hell that either John McCain or Hillary Clinton will embrace this opportunity. I know that Barack Obama would like to, but is probably too frightened.
