THE general who wanted to become a civilian president has finally bowed out. In a highly emotional message to the nation, Pervez Musharraf, who ruled Pakistan for more than nine years, asked his people for forgiveness. Musharraf’s saga epitomizes the turbulent history of a struggling country of more than 169 million, from its tumultuous birth as a nation, to its cataclysmic partition in 1971, and to the intermittent episodes of military rule after short democratic spells.
Pakistan is a nation in search of itself. Its history is a checkered one, as varied and colorful as handwoven rug, featuring bloody civil strife, erratic tribal rebellions, and disastrous close calls with its neighbor, India, especially over the disputed and divided Kashmir. Add to this its success in thrusting itself into the nuclear club of nations and its controversial role in the international fight against terrorism. Pakistan is one of the last surviving victims of the Cold War between the United States and the now defunct Soviet Union. In the 1970s it became a major pillar in America’s confrontation of Soviet expansionism in West Asia, especially after the latter’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The US cared less for Pakistan’s fragile democracy and used that country’s geopolitical assets to confront the Soviets and their allies, particularly India.
Musharraf’s era as Pakistan’s strongman would not have lasted for so long if it was not for US backing and support. He had toppled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless coup in 1999. By then the US had established itself as the world’s sole superpower, suspicious of the regime in Iran, wary of Afghanistan’s Taleban and not yet on friendly terms with India. Pakistan was, and remains, an important outlet for American foreign policies in that strategic part of Asia.
BUT Pakistan has always been a complex country. Its birth out of the womb of the British Raj, in 1947, was melodramatic and its struggle to present itself as a Muslim nation — it is the second largest Muslim country after Indonesia in terms of population — in 1950s was not without challenges. Its hostility to India and its tribalist and ethnic characters have shaped much of its bulky politics and modern history. To this day Pakistan is struggling with the legacy of its arduous creation, its geographic location, and its socio-cultural identity. The vision of the nation which founder Mohammad Ali Jinnah espoused has failed to materialize. Civil wars, military coups, partition, historic enmity with India and political instability have plagued the life of the new nation. From generals Ayub Khan, to Zia ul Haq to Musharraf, Pakistan has had to endure multiple political shocks and turbulences. No decade had passed, since independence, without a rude interruption to its nascent democratic process.
Musharraf’s adventure may have ended for now, but Pakistan’s structural problems are far from over. The country is consumed by economic, social and political challenges. The path to democracy and stability has been fraught with disappointments. In so many ways, the country has been unable to eject itself from the potholes that had tripped its progress since independence. The challenges that Pakistan face today are enormous. Musharraf’s departure does not eclipse the influence of its American benefactor. While Musharraf may have been deemed dispensable by the Bush administration, having failed to deliver much on the terrorism fighting front, his potential successors will find it almost impossible to disengage, or distance themselves, from Washington. The US remains the biggest provider of financial assistance and arms to Pakistan. Pakistan’s recent challenges, as Musharraf found out, reside in the growing influence of radical tribal leaders along the frontiers with Afghanistan. His attempt to appease the so-called Pakistani Taleban has infuriated his American allies. At the same time Pakistan’s relations with Kabul have taken a down turn, with the latter accusing Islamabad of backing, and instigating, insurgent-led attacks.
But Pakistan remains a nuclear force which cannot be sidelined. Already the West is trying to engage with a potential nuclear newcomer, Iran, and a crisis with Pakistan would not help ease tension in that part of the globe. A civilian leadership in Pakistan would be welcomed and, since the assassination of the charismatic Benazir Bhutto, the mantle of power will, eventually, go to her traditional adversary, the politically rehabilitated Sharif. The future looks uncertain for this country as it tries, once again, to steer itself toward the uneasy shores of democratic tradition. Whoever takes the helm he, or she, will find that sitting at the top will prove uncomfortable. Pakistan is going through a susceptible transition and the new leader will have to make difficult decisions that will probably divide the country before it unifies it. Meanwhile, the US will not be far from the new developments. It will certainly attempt to preserve its geopolitical assets in Pakistan and by doing so it will prove yet again that it has contributed greatly, as it has done over the past decades, to that country’s internal instability.
— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist based in Jordan.
