WASHINGTON: This has been a difficult week for Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama, and a great one for his rival, Republican John McCain.
First, there’s the “little” slip of tongue yesterday by Obama, when he admitted on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” that he is really a Muslim.
That’s not really what happened. He did say the words “my Muslim faith,” but he was replicating the language of his accusers. He used it with invisible quotes around it.
Obama was — ironically — addressing the false rumors that he is Muslim, but bloggers have been having a field day with it. Here’s an excerpt of his Sunday interview:
Obama: “Let’s not play games. What I was suggesting — you’re absolutely right that John McCain has not talked about my Muslim faith, and you’re absolutely right that that has not come”
Stephanopoulos: “Your Christian faith.”
Obama: “My Christian faith — well, what I’m saying is ... that he hasn’t suggested that I’m a Muslim, and I think that his campaign upper echelons haven’t either. What I think is fair to say is that coming out of the Republican camp, there have been efforts to suggest that perhaps I’m not what I say I am when it comes to my faith, something which I find deeply offensive, and that has been going on for a pretty long time.”
McCain, meanwhile, is basking in strongly improved opinion poll ratings after his running mate Sarah Palin wowed the Republican National Convention last week. A USA Today/Gallup poll put McCain four points ahead of Obama, his Democratic rival, by 50 percent to 46 percent, in polling that took place over the weekend — after Palin’s highly successful speech. Analysts said that McCain’s bounce in the polls was to be expected, as candidates almost always see a poll surge after their party convention. The size of the swing is being attributed to “the Palin effect,” as the impact of the Alaska governor’s sudden arrival on the political scene began to filter through to potential voters.
A USA Today poll taken before the Republican convention had McCain trailing Obama by 7 percent. More so than any presidential race in recent history, this one may be determined by forces beyond the control of either candidate.
Analysts say there are several significant factors in play: How far will housing values fall? How far will oil prices rise? Will violence in Iraq erase the gains of the surge? Will Israel attack Iran? Will one of the Big Three automakers go bankrupt? Which neighbor will Russia attack next? Which bank will fail? Will terrorists strike the United States again?
The outcome of this presidential race to White House is impossible to predict, but there are several things to watch as the unknowns become knowns.
The Economy: Voters say the economy is their No. 1 concern — and in nearly every poll Barack Obama enjoys a substantial, but not commanding, 10-15-point advantage on economic issues.
Race, Class and Experience: These issues are thought to be sapping Obama’s support. But he’s also been hurt by nagging questions about his leadership experience as the GOP tries to shift the election from a referendum on Republican economic policies to a test of whether Obama is up to the job of president.
Sarah Palin: Her addition to the ticket probably exceeded her running mate’s wildest expectations. McCain has turned an eight-point deficit in the Gallup daily tracking poll into a three-point lead.
But McCain’s campaign has so far been able to protect Palin from any downside. Palin appeared before adoring crowds in the lower 48 last week, but she did so with the help of TelePrompters and by keeping the press from interviewing her.
Politico.com, which ran a story on these ideas, asks: “How will the Alaska governor hold up under a grilling about the future of NATO, the mortgage securitization crisis or Troopergate? Joe Lieberman is reportedly giving her a rushed tutorial on foreign policy, but the potential for embarrassment remains significant despite Palin’s poise, sense of humor and innate smarts.”
Palin’s biggest test comes Oct. 2 in St. Louis, when she faces Joe Biden in what is certain to be the most eagerly anticipated and probably the most-viewed vice presidential debate ever.
Hillary Clinton: Obama needs Hillary Clinton on the trail — less to offset Palin than to deliver working-class whites who became her base during the primaries.
The Presidential Debates: Until McCain picked Palin, the trio of presidential debates — scheduled for Sept. 26 in Mississippi, Oct. 7 in Nashville, Tennessee, and Oct. 15 in Long Island — seemed likely to the defining moments in the fall campaign. They still are. All of this has made this race to the White House one of the best horse races in years. Just don’t place any bets, yet.
