Anti-government demonstrators continue to occupy the Thai seat of government and the fervor of the crowds has only increased since two people were killed and more than 400 injured in clashes with police backed up by unarmed troops. The protest is designed to stop the inauguration of a new government elected to replace that of ousted Premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is in exile in the UK. The problem for the opposition demonstrators of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is that the new government is headed by Somchai Wongsawat of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party founded by telecoms billionaire Shinawatra. It is widely believed that the businessman is still its guiding force. He is in exile because after his ouster in the 2006 coup, he was indicted on a number of corruption charges.
Thai politics is complex with 18 coups, not all successful, in the past 70 years of democracy. It is a conservative country in which the monarchy is held in high esteem by all sections of society. King Bhumibol Adulyadej exerts quiet influence behind the scenes. The PAD was outraged by Shinawatra’s economic reforms that included privatization. Thus left of center trade unions find themselves backing the protesters and seeking to preserve the status quo.
Shinawatra represents the go-getting Western entrepreneurial spirit which is currently compromised by the dismal failures of go-getting Western banks, yet his party draws strong support from rural voters, who have long felt themselves marginalized by the establishment elite in Bangkok. This power bloc would likely return another TRT government if fresh and fair elections were held. That then is the conundrum facing all parties in this now bloody standoff. The only apparently positive development is that the army chief of staff has ruled out another military intervention on the grounds that he did not see that it would help in solving the crisis. Indeed, it can be widely expected that if the army did crack down, PAD demonstrators would be replaced by members of the TRT and further bloodshed would ensue. One compromise being proposed by opponents of Shinawatra is that some joint government be established. This, however, is to ignore the fact that the TRT is back in power with a genuine mandate to govern, which is being frustrated by demonstrators against whom the authorities have — clearly out of sympathy — been reluctant to act. If Thailand really is a democracy, then the rule of law must prevail. Perhaps because of the virulence of the opposition he faces, Premier Wongsawat has set his mind against serious compromise.
Yet the answer surely lies in a subtle adjustment of the economic reforms to which TRT is committed, to ease the pain of transformation and assuage the fears of trade unionists and the oligarchs who see their historic power base threatened. Thai politicians need to be talking to each other. Street violence and obstruction of the government machine are really no solutions to such deeply held differences. Only negotiation and compromise will offer a real settlement.
