A massive program of regeneration has helped bring new self-confidence to Hull, transforming the city after decades of post-war decline. But the Yorkshire port is the city hardest hit so far by Britain’s economic meltdown, suffering the fastest leap in unemployment. Alongside Hull, Liverpool, Belfast and Wigan are the cities worst-equipped to recover from the recession, according to research.
A leading think-tank, the Center for Cities, warns that every city in the country will be hit by the downturn, but that each one’s speed of recovery will vary dramatically depending on the skills of each workforce. Tightened public spending is likely to put pressure on urban jobs.
More than 10,000 people in Hull now claim Jobseekers’ Allowance, a rise of 3,000 in just one year. The city, long hampered by its relatively remote location and poor transport links, is rated Britain’s least prosperous and second most-socially-deprived city. One-fifth of inhabitants have no formal qualifications.
Unemployment has also climbed sharply in two nearby towns, Barnsley and Doncaster, which are both heavily reliant on the construction industry.
But the center uncovers a picture more complex than the traditional north-south divide often described in the UK economy.
Despite its rapid growth and high wages, Swindon, home to Honda’s UK plant, has the fourth-highest rise in unemployment. Gloucester, a traditional center of the aviation industry, has also experienced above-average increases in the length of its dole queues and growing deprivation.
Three towns and cities in the north-west of England are seeing sharp unemployment rises — Wigan, Warrington, and Liverpool, which is judged the country’s most deprived city. Wigan has been hit particularly badly because its workforce is concentrated in the banking, finance, insurance and construction sectors.
Although Belfast boomed after the end of the Troubles, the report registers alarm over the prospects for Northern Ireland’s capital. It says the city’s lack of skills — one-quarter of teenagers leave schools with no qualifications — will hamper its recovery. Reading, Aberdeen, Oxford and Cambridge, with their highly-qualified residents and “knowledge intensive” industries, are rated among the best-placed to weather the storm, the Center for Cities said.
Few jobs have been lost so far in Aberdeen, one of Britain’s most prosperous cities. Its position as the hub of the North Sea oil industry should make it more resilient to the recession. The less-glamorous Reading is expected to benefit from high-tech industries and fast links to London.
Bristol, Leeds, Edinburgh and London are put on “amber alert.” They will “face significant employment losses” because of their vulnerability to the crisis in the financial sector, but can count on skilled populations and a range of industries to help them recover. In Edinburgh, 44 percent of working residents have degree-level qualifications — the highest proportion in the country.
Also exposed to the pressures on financial jobs are Aldershot, Newcastle, Nottingham, Crawley and Plymouth. The lowest unemployment rise came in Cambridge, which has the second best-qualified residents. Similarly well-placed is Oxford, although its property is rated the least affordable in the country. Dermot Finch, the director of the Center for Cities, said: “UK cities will be hit harder than they anticipate by this recession. Nearly all say they are well-placed to weather the storm — but they can’t all be right.
“Cities will lead us out of recession — but they can’t just rely on action from Whitehall. Each city needs to plan how to keep its jobs and retrain workers.”
