“Iacta alea est” — the die is cast — said Julius Caesar and crossed the River Rubicon on his way to conquer Rome. That was the end of Roman democracy.
We in Israel don’t have a Julius Caesar. But we do have an Avigdor Liberman. When he announced his support the other day for the setting up of a government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, that was the crossing of his Rubicon. Until the last moment, Liberman held the Israeli public in suspense. Will he join Netanyahu? Will he join Tzipi Livni?
Those who participated in the guessing game were divided in their view of Liberman. Some of them said his aim is really to turn Israel into a Jewish state cleansed of Arabs. Some leftists like Gideon Levy, a consistent advocate of peace, say: “Israel simply has to pass through this phase before it can recover. Let them try, in full view of the world, to pursue a policy of war, the overthrow of Hamas in Gaza, the avoidance of any peace negotiations, unfettered settlement, spitting in the face of world public opinion and collision with the United States.”
This is a seductive theory. But it is also very frightening.
How can we be sure that the Obama administration will indeed put irresistible pressure on Netanyahu? That is possible. Let’s hope that it happens. But it is not certain at all.
Obama has not yet passed a real test on any issue. It is already clear that there is a marked difference between what he promised in the election campaign and what he is doing in practice. In several matters he is continuing the policies of George W. Bush with slight alterations. That was, of course, to be expected. But Obama has not yet shown how he would act under real pressure. When Netanyahu mobilizes the full might of the pro-Israel lobby, will Obama surrender, like all preceding presidents?
And world public opinion — how united will it be? How much pressure can it exert? When Netanyahu declares that all criticism of his government is “anti-Semitic” and that every boycott call is an echo of the Nazi slogan “Kauft nicht bei Juden” (“Don’t buy from Jews”) — how many of the critics will stand up to the pressure? How much courage will Merkel, Sarkozy, Berlusconi et al be able to muster? And on the other side: Will a worldwide boycott not intensify the paranoia in Israel and push all the Israeli public into the arms of the extreme right, under the time-worn slogan, “All the world is against us?”
In the best of circumstances, if all the pressures materialize and have a maximum impact — how long will it take? What disasters can such a government bring about before the pressure starts to take effect? How many human beings will be killed and injured in attacks and acts of revenge by both sides? Such a government would be dominated by the settlers. How many new settlements will spring up? How many existing settlements will be extended at a hectic pace? And in the meantime, won’t the settlers intensify their harassment of the Palestinian population with the aim of bringing about ethnic cleansing?
The components of the rightist coalition have already declared that they do not agree to a cease-fire in Gaza because it would consolidate the rule of Hamas there. They seek to renew the Gaza War under an even more brutal leadership, to reconquer the Strip and to return the settlers there.
Netanyahu’s talk about an “economic peace” is complete nonsense, because no economy can develop under an occupation regime and hundreds of roadblocks. Any peace process — real or virtual — will grind to a halt. The result: The Palestinian Authority will collapse. Out of desperation, the West Bank population will turn further toward Hamas, or the Fatah movement will become Hamas 2.
Inside Israel, the government will have to confront the deepening depression and perhaps cause economic chaos. All the sections of the government are united in their hatred of the Supreme Court, and the crazy manipulations of Justice Minister Daniel Friedman will give way to even crazier ones. Under the catchy slogan of “regime change”, targeted assaults against the democratic system will take place.
All these things are possible. One or two years of a Bibi-Liberman-Kahane government can cause irreparable damage to Israel’s standing in the world, Israeli-American relations, the judicial system, Israeli democracy, national morale and national sanity.
The positive side of this situation is that the Knesset will once again include a large opposition. Perhaps even an effective opposition.
Kadima came into being as a government party. It will not be easy for it to adapt to the role of opposition. That will require an emotional and intellectual transformation. For 10 years I myself conducted an uncompromising oppositional struggle in the Knesset, and I know how difficult it is. But if Kadima manages to undergo such a transformation successfully — which is very doubtful — it may become an effective opposition. The necessity to present a clear alternative to the rightist government may lead it to discover unsuspected strengths within itself. Kadima party leader Tzipi Livni’s games with the Palestinians may turn into a serious program for a two-state solution, a program that will be strengthened and deepened by the daily parliamentary struggle vis-à-vis a government with an opposite program.
Labor, too, will have to undergo a profound transformation. Ehud Barak is certainly not the person to wage an oppositional fight — especially as he will not be the “head of the opposition”, a title officially conferred by law on the leader of the largest opposition faction. He will be second fiddle even in opposition. Labor will have to compete, and perhaps — perhaps this will lead to its recovery. The Bible speaks of the miracle of the dry bones (Ezekiel 37). That is true even more for Meretz. It will have to compete with both Kadima and Labor to justify its place in the struggle for peace and social recovery.
A real optimist can even hope for the narrowing of the gap between the “Jewish left” and the “Arab parties”, which the left has until now boycotted and left out of all coalition calculations. The common struggle and the joint votes in the Knesset may bring about a positive development there too. And beyond the parliamentary arena, the government of the extreme right may change the atmosphere in the country and stimulate many well-intentioned people to leave the security of their ivory towers and start a process of intellectual rejuvenation in the circles from which a new, open and different left must spring.
All these are theoretical possibilities. What will happen in reality? What will be the consequences of a “pure” rightist regime, if Livni maintains her determination not to join a Netanyahu government? Will Israel set off down a suicidal road from which there is no return, or will this be a passing phase before the wake-up call?
It is a great gamble, and like every gamble, it arouses both fear and hope.
