For years the Tamil Tigers have been seen as one of the most efficient and ruthless terrorist organizations in the world. They masterminded the suicide attack, killing over a thousand people with it over the past 15 years, among them Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and a number of top Sri Lankan ministers and officials. Gandhi’s assassin was the first recorded female suicide bomber. But the Tigers’ days, indeed their hours, are now numbered.
Yesterday, tens of thousands of Tamil civilians managed to break out of the Tigers’ last stronghold in what appears to have been an exodus of monumental size: 35,000 people in some five hours.
The story says two things. One is that the Tigers have been ruthless to the end, refusing to let civilians go, using them instead as hostages and shields. It has been a revolting episode. In the final act, ordinary Tamils did not come first as far as the Tigers were concerned. They were mere fodder for the movement’s political ambitions. Reports of Tiger suicide bombers yesterday killing 17 civilians in the zone to prevent them fleeing have yet to be verified. It may turn out to be government propaganda. But if true, it shows the Tigers at their most savage — willing to murder their own people to keep them hostage. Even if the report does turn out to be false, it does not lessen the horror of the Tigers’ use of civilians to save themselves.
Secondly, it is clear that that final act has begun. The way that the Sri Lankan government has presented the exodus makes it quite clear that it now feels free to administer the final blow. After the plight of the trapped civilians was brought to the world’s attention a fortnight ago, it stayed its hand so that they could get out, knowing that to do otherwise would have resulted in wholesale international condemnation and a moral victory for the Tigers. The very firm assertion yesterday by President Mahinda Rajapakse that so many thousands of civilians managed to escape after government forces broke through Tiger defenses is a signal that that they will now move in to wipe out the last remnants of Tiger power and that the battle will be bloody. He gave the Tiger leadership 24 hours to surrender but that is not the Tigers’ style. They will fight to the last man — and woman. An organization that developed modern suicide bombing (something the rest of the world so often forgets) will not go quietly. But is the war almost over, as President Rajapakse promises? The Tigers may be defeated as a conventional force, but they could so easily be resurrected as an underground one using the tactics they so perfected. It only takes a handful of dedicated guerrillas to cause maximum destruction. Yesterday’s suicide bombings could signify a new phase. Unless the Sri Lankan government acts intelligently and takes measures to ensure that Tamils no longer feel oppressed or exploited, there will be a Tamil problem even after the last Tiger is killed or surrenders. Granting a measure of autonomy to the Tamils need not mean the disintegration of Sri Lanka. There are no other separatists waiting to copy the Tamils.
The government in Colombo is about to win the war but without wisdom it could still lose the peace.
South Africa: Focus on Zuma
As South Africa prepares to return the ANC to power, voters must ask what kind of governance its leader represents for his country and his embattled continent, wrote The Times in an editorial, saying in part:
The surprise appearance yesterday of Nelson Mandela at the final rally of the ruling African National Congress was intended to lend the elder statesman’s prestige, authority and dignity to the man who will, almost inevitably, become the next president of South Africa after the general election on Wednesday. Jacob Zuma needs all Mandela’s qualities. The doubts about his suitability to lead Africa’s richest nation are legion. For the past eight years he has been entangled in legal cases, recently escaping prosecution on corruption, fraud and money-laundering charges because of evidence of political interference in the process. He is a populist demagogue who has switched from communism to the crony capitalism of the new black elite, but whose economic policies remain unclear.
He is a tough negotiator and skillful conciliator, yet appears deeply intolerant of opposition. It is clear, despite the dissent of those still loyal to the former president, Thabo Mbeki, that the ANC will win on Wednesday. The immediate worry is whether Zuma will then attempt to strike down the safeguards in the country’s robustly democratic constitution in order to limit the power of opponents in Parliament. If so, he will strike a death blow to hopes for the emergence of a mature two-party system. For this, and other reasons, the coming election is South Africa’s most crucial turning point since the end of apartheid in 1994.
A wholesale lurch to the left would not sit easily with Zuma’s assurances that he will attract foreign investment and retain Trevor Manuel, the country’s respected finance minister. Nor would it boost the growth of the black middle class on which the country’s economic future ultimately depends.
