ISRAEL is in the international doghouse. The Israeli government’s reluctance to progress toward a two-state solution, its demolitions in East Jerusalem, and its continued expansion of Jewish settlements on Palestinian land is frowned upon by the US, Europe, the Middle East and much of the rest of the world. In light of the immunity and impunity status that it has long enjoyed under a protective American umbrella, under normal circumstances Israel would be able to shrug off the condemnation in the same way as a horse with an annoying fly on its tail. But times they are a-changing.
During his long-awaited speech last Thursday at Cairo University, US President Barack Obama took the opportunity to make his feelings known. He strongly empathized with Palestine suffering, likening their struggle to that of South Africans under apartheid and the African-American civil rights movement. Moreover, he stressed his commitment to a two-state solution and undertook to make this a personal mission.
Furthermore, he unequivocally told Israel to quit settlement expansion, which contravenes the terms of the road map, which Israel has ratified. On Friday and Saturday, he reiterated these demands in Europe, which were seconded by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is known to be opposed to a Palestinian state other than demilitarized one over which Israel has control, has been prompted to affirm his support for regional peace and has announced he intends to make a major foreign policy speech later this week to clarify his intent.
Israel has made a small concession to Obama’s demands by evacuating a tiny illegal Jewish outpost on the West Bank while promising more evacuations to come, although Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said US pressure had nothing to do with this initiative. Believe him if you will.
There are also reports that Obama’s Middle East envoy George Mitchell is pushing Israel for talks on its final West Bank borders, which Israeli officials have dismissed as a threat and an attempt at exacting leverage.
On June 15, Israel’s controversial Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is due to meet EU officials to discuss an upgrade of Israel’s status within the bloc. However, unless Israel changes its tune pronto, any such upgrade is likely to be frozen. A draft EU declaration states: “Our common interest and objectives include the resolution of the Israeli-Palestine conflict trough implementation of the solution based on two states. The EU is deeply concerned by the recent increase in settlement activities, house demolitions and evacuations in the Palestinian territories, especially in East Jerusalem. Reconstruction and economic recovery of the Gaza Strip require permanent openings of the border crossings for the delivery of humanitarian aid.”
Israel’s biggest trading partner, the EU, has also warned that it may curtail imports of produce grown by Jewish settlers on Palestinian lands. Israel’s response is to warn the EU that it could be excluded from peace negotiations. “If these declarations continue, Europe will not be able to be part of a diplomatic process, and both sides will lose,” said Ehud Barak.
In the meantime, according to Al-Hayat, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah explained to Obama during his visit to Riyadh last week that Arab patience is running out. “We want to devote our time...to build a generation capable of confronting the future with science and work,” he is quoted as saying. The newspaper says the king urged the US president to get tough with Israel, if necessary.
There’s little doubt that all concerned parties are displeased with Israel’s direction under Netanyahu, but what happens if the Israeli government remains stubborn? Will the international consensus be “Oh well, never mind, we tried. Now let’s forget about it,” which was the stance taken by a UN committee set up to investigate Israel’s crimes in Gaza?
If Netanyahu digs his heels in, Obama’s credibility will be very much on the line. There are various options open to him to exert further pressure.
First, he could cut Israel’s annual $3 billion bonus, courtesy of US taxpayers. Second, he could refrain from sheltering Israel against United Nations censure. And thirdly, he could work behind the scenes to persuade other nations to punish Israel for its intransigence.
But when push comes to shove is he prepared to face the ire of Congress, the heavily pro-Israel American public and, of course, AIPAC and friends? Then again, if he backs off, he risks being perceived as weak and ineffectual.
It’s likely that Netanyahu’s upcoming speech will be designed to massage the White House and avoid direct confrontation. The danger is that the wily Israeli prime minister will say the right things and then proceed to do nothing. Israelis are adept at stalling for time as we’ve witnessed throughout the last 60 years. Whether yet another Israeli leader will be given free rein to procrastinate as he grabs more Palestinian land or whether the unified will of the international community will prevail, we have yet to see.
