LEBANESE voters have renewed the existing power balance in Parliament, confounding Hezbollah and its Christian ally Michel Aoun, who had sought to overturn the fragile majority held by Saad Hariri’s anti-Syrian bloc. Preliminary results suggested Hariri’s Sunni, Druze and Christian alliance would emerge from Sunday’s poll with 71 of the assembly’s 128 seats, against 68 before, after close electoral battles in Christian heartland districts.
The outcome, a blow to Iran and Syria, will reassure the United States, which had warned it would review aid to Lebanon depending on the shape and policies of the next Cabinet.
Whether the election will lead to another uneasy national unity government or plunge Lebanon into prolonged political deadlock may hinge on the outside powers who back the opposing blocs, wedded to irreconcilable visions for the country.
It may take weeks to agree on a new government, but few analysts expect political disputes to spark armed confrontation. “Lebanon will not witness another round of violence,” said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut. “There’s a regional understanding on this, which we saw at work yesterday when despite the heated atmosphere, the election took place peacefully.” But he forecast “rough days ahead” while political adversaries clash over the formation of the next government.
For a year, a Qatari-brokered deal backed by Syria and Saudi Arabia has checked tensions in Lebanon, allowing state institutions to function again after an 18-month impasse that ended in a spasm of street fighting in May 2008. US President Barack Obama’s diplomatic overtures to Iran and Syria, Hezbollah’s principal patrons, have also helped contain regional hostilities that often spill over in Lebanon. The Lebanese have no stomach for a repetition of last year’s echo of their 1975-90 civil war, analyst Rami Khouri said.
“They realize that what they did last May, the Sunni-Shiite fighting in the streets, was a catastrophe. They want to avoid that at any cost,” he said of the clashes in which Hezbollah and its allies briefly took over the Muslim half of Beirut.
Ultimately, another inclusive, power-sharing government was inevitable, he argued. “The real election was last May in the streets and Hezbollah won. That defined the power structure that came out of Doha and that is going to continue — nobody is going to force decisions down the throat of the other side.”
But trust between the two blocs is in short supply. Hezbollah who fought a 34-day war with Israel in 2006, is viewed as a liability, if not a dangerous Iranian proxy, by Hariri’s Western-oriented bloc. Suspicions run just as high among the “resistance” camp led by Hezbollah, hostile to what it sees as US-inspired efforts to deprive it of the arms needed to defend Lebanon from Israel.
Post-election bickering may focus on whether Hezbollah, its Shiite ally Amal and Aoun’s loyalists should again be granted veto power over key decisions in a consensus government. Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah called for “partnership” — a code word for veto rights — and argued against any repeat of past “catastrophes” that proved no one could monopolize power.
“Whoever wants political stability, preservation of national unity and the resurrection of Lebanon will find no choice but to accept the principle of consensus,” he told Reuters.
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a prominent figure in Hariri’s bloc, said that Hezbollah and its allies should join the next Cabinet, but without veto power. “We should not forget that the election should be a boost to the dialogue and we should not try to isolate the other parties,” he said, referring to talks outside Parliament among Lebanese leaders focused on the fate of Hezbollah’s arms.
