The new NATO secretary-general, former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, says winning the war in Afghanistan is the organization’s top priority. Given the absence of other pressing commitments, that seems a statement of the obvious. Nonetheless, the fact that he flew to Kabul to meet political and military leaders just four days after taking over as head of NATO shows his personal commitment to bringing the conflict to a conclusion.
Echoing statements by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the new commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, Rasmussen also says that he is determined to reduce Afghan civilian casualties to an absolute minimum.
It is a must. Bringing peace to Afghanistan cannot happen without it. History is full of stories of armies welcomed as liberators only then to be seen as the enemy because of their brutal behavior to civilians. In Afghanistan’s case, it is eight years since the Taleban regime was overthrown. Yet, Afghans are dying in ever-growing numbers at the hands of foreign forces there to protect them. In the first six months of this year, around a third of the thousand Afghan civilians killed in the conflict died through NATO action. It is causing deep anger. “Death to America” was the cry of crowds near Kandahar on Wednesday after three children and a man were killed in an airstrike at the same time Rasmussen was speaking on the subject with President Hamid Karzai in Kabul. The NATO-led forces are losing the battle for Afghan hearts and minds.
Rasmussen says that the NATO-led forces will stay in Afghanistan for “as long as it takes.” Significantly, though, two days before heading to Kabul, he also said that Afghanistan must take responsibility for its security during his term in office. This is the first hint of an exit strategy. His term of office is five years. He is effectively saying that by 2014, large numbers of foreign forces will have been pulled out and Afghanistan would be in the same position that Iraq is supposed to be over the next few months.
The surge in foreign troops is bound to help but there is a mountain to climb before Afghanistan ever reaches that point. For the moment, the conflict seems to be getting worse. July was the bloodiest month in terms of foreign troop casualties since the overthrow of the Taleban. Civilian casualties are up a quarter this year and still there is no peace in sight. Indeed, Rasmussen’s sentiments about reducing civilian casualties may add to NATO woes. Knowing its need, the Taleban will do everything to try and get NATO troops to kill civilians. They will attack in built-up areas, using mosques, schools and hospitals; hiding behind women and children; hoping that NATO will shoot and kill them, so that they can then present themselves as champions against these evil foreign forces.
Rasmussen’s statement in Kabul that NATO will ensure a prosperous, peaceful Afghanistan is perhaps his most curious comment. Since when has NATO been in the business of bringing prosperity to a country? Yet there lies the nub of the problem. There have been too many aid promises reneged on. If foreign aid produced more hospitals, schools, roads, homes, more electricity, more water and more jobs, Afghan attitudes would be very different. Is Rasmussen promising to ensure greater aid to Afghanistan? That would be interesting.
