Despite Pakistani government confidence, it would be wiser to assume that the leader of the Taleban there, Baitullah Mehsud, is still alive until his death is conclusively confirmed. A month ago it was reported that Maulana Fazlullah, the Taleban leader in the Swat Valley, was close to death after being mortally wounded; the news turned out to have been premature and he still appears to be in command of his forces. Similar caution needs to be exercised over reports of disarray in Pakistani Taleban ranks and different groups supposedly turning against each other. Although it might seem logical to assume that the Taleban in Pakistan is on the wane given the scale of military offensive against it (not to mention US drone attacks which, of course, are wholly unconnected), the plain fact is that it is extremely difficult to get reliable information from places such as the Swat Valley and Waziristan. And unfortunately, it seems at times as if the Pakistani authorities and the Americans simply believe what they want to believe.
Similar caution is necessary elsewhere. There has been a regular diet of reports that the militants in Iraq are largely defeated. Likewise, it is said that the tables have now been turned in Afghanistan and that the Taleban are taking a terrible beating in Helmand province. That may be so but Monday’s deadly coordinated attacks in Mosul and Baghdad and the takeover by the Taleban of government buildings in the provincial capital of Logar province in Afghanistan show that such movements still pack a mighty sting in their tails. That is also the case with the Taleban’s ideological gurus in Al-Qaeda and the various global jihadist groups spawned by it. It is thanks to constant vigilance and intelligence that there have been no other major terrorist outrages elsewhere; they have certainly been plotting, here in the Kingdom and, as last week’s arrests in Melbourne show, even as far away as Australia.
There are, however, signs that Al-Qaeda, frustrated on the battle-front, is looking to alternative ways of bringing chaos to the world. One idea attracting considerable attention on jihadist websites of late is “econo-Jihad” — targeting Western financial systems. That should not be so surprising. The World Trade Center in New York was targeted not once but twice — in 1993 as well as on 9/11 — because it symbolized American economic power.
There has certainly been glee on such websites about the global economic crisis, seeing it as proof of wicked Western ways and presaging America’s decline and destruction. This too is a case of believing what you want to believe. It says everything about the jihadists’ understanding of capitalism and shows the extent to which they are driven by ignorance and hate. In any event, they are now out of date; every day brings further evidence that the worst of the recession is over. But that is unlikely to deter them. As a result of the economic crisis, they are convinced that the crisis is the key to America’s destruction. However, it will not be through financial manipulation that they strike; they do not have the means. Wedded as they are to violence, their own real religion, their plots against the global economy will center on physical targets — oil installations, bank headquarters and financial centers. The world needs to be on guard.
