DAMMAM: An ExxonMobil executive shared his company’s 2030 energy outlook and predicted that fossil fuels would retain their primacy through the next few decades.
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia Vice President of Chemicals Marc Granier made the remarks Monday during the plenary session of Petrochem Arabia 2009 at the Dhahran International Exhibition Center.
Granier said fossil fuels would remain the dominant energy source through the next few decades and said that growth in demand would be offset in part by increasing energy efficiency, advancements in technologies and better resource management.
One significant change will be a reduction in the use of coal, now No. 2 globally. Coal will be replaced by natural gas and the use of gas is already increasing.
“Today, oil, gas and coal account for 80 percent of global energy use,” Granier said. “Natural gas will be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and renewables will grow. New technologies — solar and wind — are expected to account for 9 percent of energy use by 2030. Presently, alternatives and biofuels account for 2 percent. He said transportation demand for personal vehicles would grow by 40 percent through the period.
“Personal vehicles will account for a large portion of energy use, but expected increases won’t rise as much because of efficiency gains,” Granier said.
He noted that the number of personal vehicles in the United States is expected to peak at about 275 million by 2030. The European Union will increase to about 260 million by that time. Those numbers will be offset by increases in fuel efficiency with a 30 mpg target likely to be achieved in the US by 2020 and EU fuel efficiency likely to increase to 50 mpg by 2030.
The wild cards are China and the developing world where personal vehicle fleets are expected to rise significantly throughout the period.
In terms of power generation, Granier noted that the US, EU and China now account for 60 percent of total global production, a percentage that is likely to decrease as developing nations begin generating more power. Coal is still used extensively for power generation, and Granier noted that, excluding costs associated with carbon-dioxide emissions, coal was about 10 percent cheaper than other fossil fuel sources.
Carbon dioxide is a point of particular concern. Granier said that although CO2 emissions would likely decrease in the US and EU, they were expected to increase in China, which was expected to account for 25 percent of global CO2 emissions by 2030. He said the two major challenges facing the energy industry were providing energy for continued economic growth and controlling CO2 emissions.
He said algae-based biofuels showed great promise as they were not dissimilar to current gasoline and that they also absorbed carbon dioxide. “Technology will play a central role in energy-sector advances,” Granier said. The fact remains that energy demand will grow over the foreseeable future, and fossil fuels will have to satisfy those demands.
“Efficiency eases demand concerns,” Granier said, “but more energy reserves will have to be found.” Petrochem Arabia 2009, which is putting the spotlight on Saudi Arabia’s rapidly expanding petrochemicals industry, continues today with sessions on infrastructure and transportation needs and financial concerns the growing industrial sector faces.
