When a month ago I mentioned the idea of President Tony Blair to friends in Brussels, they laughed at me. Absurd, ludicrous, unthinkable, how could I even consider such an idea? The fact that the British press was widely advancing Blair’s name for the post of first EU president astounded them, and they like Tony Blair!
A month on the campaign to nominate Blair for the post has set sail full steam ahead and for a while even made him the front-runner. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was among the first to support his candidacy. Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, made supporting noises. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was said not to be unfavorable. It seemed almost inevitable that he would get the job. After all who has even heard of the other contenders? Blair is the only one with enough star quality to give the job some weight, his supporters argued.
But that’s just it; the job itself is not as grand as it sounds. The EU president is a new job that will be created when the Lisbon Treaty comes into force. Twenty-six of the 27 members of the EU have ratified the treaty. Once Vaclav Klaus, the Czech president, signs the treaty, it will come into force and the EU will have to nominate a president, a job Tony Blair has been hankering after.
Or has he? The EU president has little real power. His role is not clearly defined and it may be that someone like Blair could, by the sheer weight of his persona, make it more powerful, but in essence, it is more of a mediator than a president in the way you and I may think of it. He is certainly not responsible for creating policy and though he will represent the EU at international meetings, he does not have the clout to make direct decisions. He is there to represent rather than to lead, to bring together rather than to drive forward, to fix problems rather than start initiatives.
However, the really interesting job is that of foreign minister. That is not the actual title though many have dubbed it such. The new post, also created by the Lisbon Treaty, is that of high representative of the union for foreign affairs and security policy. The job effectively merges two current positions, that of European commissioner for external relations and that of high representative for common foreign and security policy. The minister will also be vice president of the commission.
It is a high-powered post. As well as running the foreign policy arm of the EU, the new minister will be responsible for the EU’s foreign affairs budget, much of it aimed at the Palestinians. In other words, this one man or woman will have a great deal of influence over the lives of Palestinian men and women. Not only will he or she be in charge of dispensing billions of euros in aid but he or she will be responsible for proposing and leading European foreign policy. Policy decisions will remain with individual member states, of course, but the minister will chair the European Council, the committee of foreign ministers where the decisions are made, and will have a key role in setting the policy agenda.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this new job is that it will create an expanded European External Action Service (EEAS), effectively creating a Foreign Ministry and a diplomatic service for the EU. This service will be a separate and independent entity to the European Commission, running on its own budget. Current representative offices abroad will become fully-fledged embassies. Staff will come both from the European Commission and from secondments from the foreign ministries of member states. The full scope and structure of the EEAS is still being negotiated. Whoever gets the job will have a great deal of influence on setting down the foundations for the future of European foreign policy.
The French like to say an oncoming train may hide another. I am fully willing to believe that Tony Blair would love to be European president. It would mean curtailing and winding down the multimillion dollar consultancy business he has set up since standing down. It would also mean good-bye to being paid six-figure sums to make speeches. He would have to put off the book tour for the memoirs he is currently writing. He would have a lot to lose, but still it would be worth it for his place in history. It seems more than likely he genuinely wants the job.
But those with political acumen, and the British are famous for having some of the sharpest minds in the foreign policy business, maintain that a Blair candidacy would deliver not Blair for president but British Foreign Secretary Miliband for foreign minister — and Miliband is currently being touted as a leading candidate for the job. Think of how such negotiations are made. Each country of the 27 member states gets one job in the European Commission. It is horse-trading. They argue among each other and barter for votes. The problems facing Blair as a candidate were clear from the start. My friends had reasons for laughing at the sheer idea of a President Blair. The current make-up of the European Union is not to the left but to the center right. It is to be expected that they will insist on a president from their political constituency, and consequently deliver the Foreign Ministry job to the left.
Furthermore a British president is an unpopular idea in Brussels. Britain is hardly a full-hearted supporter of the European project. It has opted out of the single currency, of the Schengen agreement allowing free unrestricted travel between member states, as well as opting out of various significant chapters of European treaties. Again it is only right that the president of the EU comes from a country that is fully committed to a European Union.
There are also questions as to whether the president should come from a big European nation like Britain or from one of the smaller and less influential member states. Clearly the latter would be an easier deal to negotiate. If you were in Angela Merkel’s shoes would you like to see a European president from Britain or France, or would you rather encourage the nomination of someone from say Austria or Luxembourg?
And finally of course there is Blair himself. There are those who love him and those who loathe him. His part in the Iraq war is far from forgotten and many do not want to see him rewarded with such a prestigious post. He is far from an uncontentious candidate.
As a pro-European, I hope Blair does not get the post. I would like to see it go to someone who will be more interested in achieving consensus and moving the EU forward than someone who has already made his career and whose main motivation enhancing his place in the history books.
As an Arab, I hope Miliband does not get the foreign minister post. For one thing, I would like to see this job go to someone from a country that is less Israel-friendly than British administration. For another, I would be happier with a candidate who has not on a number of occasions shown what could be described as distaste for dealing with certain leaders of the Arab world.