The West is hoping for more political stability in Ukraine after Sunday’s presidential election but quick entry into NATO or the European Union are off the agenda whatever the outcome.
Infighting among Ukraine’s leaders and economic crisis have shattered the optimism inspired in the West by the former Soviet republic’s “Orange Revolution” in 2004, and Ukrainians say Western leaders have lost interest in their country.
“Ukraine has gone from being a darling of the EU to a complete and utter nightmare,” said Tomas Valasek at the Center for European Reform think tank.
“A few years ago most EU states were convinced it should be in the European Union within a few years. All that has changed.”
Ukraine, which is squeezed between Russia and the European Union and carries Russian energy to Europe, is vital to its Western neighbors’ economic and security interests.
Governments from Europe to the United States hope the vote will at least provide some clarity as to who is running Ukraine after years of squabbling between the president, prime minister and main opposition leader.
But there is little optimism that either of the two main candidates — opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko — can bring any quick turnaround.
There is also considerable nervousness that the election, expected to go to a runoff between Yanukovich and Tymoshenko on Feb. 7, could generate further political strife.
Lack of Ukrainian support for joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has pushed membership off the immediate agenda, despite the Western military alliance’s pledge that Kiev will one day become a member.
The political turbulence in Kiev has also seriously damaged hopes harbored by both the main candidates that Ukraine could one day join the 27-country EU, which could offer a country such as Ukraine more protection during future economic crises.
Kiev’s handling of a gas supply crisis in Europe last year, when Russia turned off the taps of pipelines running through Ukraine, damaged its reputation in the EU as a reliable partner. The political bickering that led to suspension of emergency International Monetary Fund loans had a similar effect.
Ukrainians say the problems are not entirely of their own making, and accuse the West of suddenly losing interest in their country. The EU and NATO became more wary after saber rattling by Russia and Russian suggestions that drawing Kiev into the Western orbit would damage business ties with Moscow.
Valasek said the election could be a last chance for Ukraine to revive its EU prospects.
“With the economy being in such terrible shape, the appetite and desire among EU member states to consider Ukraine as a potential member has decreased correspondingly,” he said.
“We are all looking at the election and hoping for a little more stability, a little more clarity about who’s actually running the country.”
Andrew Wilson of the European Council on Foreign Relations said EU-Ukraine economic cooperation remained essential and Kiev’s future membership prospects could be revived, but relations were at a low ebb.
“The ball is very much in Ukraine’s court. Whoever is elected will have to restore a reputation for policy coherence and policy delivery pretty soon — within the first 30 or 100 days, particularly on items already on the table,” he said. “There are indications that Tymoshenko, at least, would try to revive those issues were she to be elected,” he said.
Wilson said the EU too could move to improve the atmosphere, but added: “All that depends on what type of election we get ... it has to be more or less free and fair with no crazy provocations or obvious fraud, or the loser refusing to accept the result — all of which are possible.”
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told a European Parliament hearing on Monday that “clear European interests are at stake” in the election.
But the next Ukrainian president will also have to find a balance in dealings with the East and West.
“Tymoshenko would probably play that game of balance slightly more to the West than the East ... she certainly talks more warmly of the EU and IMF,” Wilson said.
