Nearly everyday, the crackle of gunfire and the roar of mortars can be heard somewhere in the towns and forests of the scenic Himalayan region, which is claimed by both India and Pakistan but divided between them.
Most recently, Indian soldiers have been hunting militants for more than a week in a thickly forested area northwest of Srinagar, the region's main city. The operation, one of the largest in years, has already left 11 suspected rebels and four soldiers dead amid the rugged terrain, said Indian army spokesman Col. Vineet Sood.
On Friday, police said that suspected rebels threw a grenade at government forces as they fired rubber bullets to disperse nearly 150 anti-India protesters in Srinagar, wounding four security forces and one civilian.
Hemant Lohia, a top police officer, said two of the injured troops were in critical condition.
No militant group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.
“The army is gearing up to meet new challenges as this summer is going to be a hot summer in terms of security,” India's Defense Minister A. K. Antony recently told reporters. Summers have traditionally been a time of increased fighting in Kashmir, as snow melts in Himalayan mountain passes and militants are able to slip across from the Pakistani-controlled portion of the territory.
“Infiltration from the Pakistani side increased last year and this year also there are serious attempts,” said Kuldeep Khoda, the police chief of Indian-controlled Kashmir. Police say they have arrested 10 Kashmiri teenagers just this month — six allegedly trying to cross to the Pakistani side for arms training and four looking for weapons training on the Indian side.
According to police records, 76 suspected militants and 23 members of the police and the army have been killed in the first four months this year. Thirteen civilians have also died in the conflict.
During the same period last year, 53 militants, 15 members of various security forces and five civilians were killed.
The spike in militant violence follows a decline that began in 2004, after India and Pakistan initiated a peace process, that reduced bilateral tensions but made little headway in settling the two nation's core dispute over Kashmir. The violence could complicate efforts by the South Asian rivals to restart the peace talks that were frozen after 10 Pakistan-based militants attacked the Indian city of Mumbai in November 2008.
Analysts say massive street protests that roiled Indian Kashmir over the past two years may have paved the way for the resurgent militant attacks.
The protests were sparked by local issues, such as a state government decision to transfer land to a Hindu shrine, but quickly became the region's largest-ever protests against Indian rule, often bringing tens of thousands of people into the streets. Rock-throwing would lead to government forces firing tear gas and even live ammunition, leading to pitched clashes. Overall, more than 60 protesters have been killed and hundreds more wounded.
Meanwhile, Indian authorities launched a massive arrest campaign, hauling in hundreds of protesters.
The crackdown “is radicalizing the situation,” said Noor Mohammed Baba, a professor at the political science department of Kashmir University. “The scenario becomes more favorable for radical elements to take over.” Security forces, with long experience at fighting militants, have had more trouble neutralizing street protests.
Until there is forward movement toward resolving the festering Kashmir dispute, it will be difficult to end the protests, analysts say.
“They don't fear armed militants as much as youth in the streets now,” Baba said.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan and India have fought two wars over Kashmir and, since 1989, Muslim militants have fought in Indian-controlled Kashmir for independence or merger with Pakistan.
More than 68,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in what seemed like relentless cycles of fighting and crackdowns.
