The red-shirted protesters will gather in the same shopping district they occupied during the April to May unrest that killed 91 people and wounded at least 1,800 in the worst political violence in modern Thai history.
But the lack of clear leadership among the “red shirts” makes a prolonged protest this time unlikely, especially with memories still fresh of a May 19 crackdown that ended with a night of rioting in which more than 30 buildings were set ablaze
“There have been and will be short and sporadic protests like this for some time,” said Karn Yuenyong, director of independent think tank Siam Intelligence Unit. “They aim to energise the people and remind the government that the resentment is still there but it’s not about forcing an end game yet.”
Friday’s expected evening gathering of about 10,000 protesters in the Ratchaprasong district is a reminder of fissures in Thai society that remain dangerously unresolved despite government promises of reconciliation.
It also shows how quickly the red shirts are regrouping in Bangkok despite nearly eight months of emergency rule under which gatherings of more than five people are banned. Though technically illegal, Friday’s protest was approved to go ahead as long as it is peaceful.
The emergency decree has helped to restore order to Thailand. Its economy is bouncing back, projected to grow as much as 8 percent this year. Thai stock prices , which fell nearly 5 percent in a $1.5 billion wave of foreign selling during the unrest, are now the second-strongest in Southeast Asia.
But the continued protest movement bodes ill for chances of an imminent end to a five-year political crisis that broadly pits urban and rural working class red shirts against the establishment elite, royalists, and the military, who back British-born, Oxford-educated Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
“Although the demonstration resumes today, I see low political risk,” said Chakkrit Charoenmethachai, an analyst at Globlex Securities Co Ltd, a stock brokerage in Bangkok.
The protesters, many of whom support the twice-elected former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, say democracy and the judiciary have been undermined by their powerful opponents and have demanded immediate elections, which Abhisit said could be called next year before his term expires if the country is peaceful.
Several hundred protesters dressed in black and carrying red roses gathered outside a Bangkok prison earlier on Friday to call for the release of detained protesters and their leaders. Prison authorities estimate at least 150 are still being held.
While the crowd size is expected to be large, security forces and observers expect the event to be peaceful.
Protest leader Jatuporn Prompan, who remains free because of the immunity granted to him as a lawmaker, told police on Thursday the protest will last only one to two hours. About 1,800 police will be deployed to oversee the rally.
“We are calling for the release of our leaders and the prosecutions of those who were responsible for the violence and we will go home quickly,” Jatuporn told Reuters.
