The ruling Conservatives remain firmly in first, but with the May 2 vote approaching it was unclear if the left-leaning NDP’s recent climb will hinder or help Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s hopes of winning a majority government.
The Conservatives won minority governments in the 2006 and 2008 that required the support of at least one of the opposition parties to pass major legislation such as the budget and remain in power.
The New Democrats, who have never governed Canada, have traditionally trailed behind both the Conservatives and main opposition Liberals in support — with voters often abandoning them in the final week of the election.
But a strong showing by NDP leader Jack Layton in the election debates and struggles by the separatist Bloc Quebecois in Quebec have put wind in the party’s political sails and put the other parties on the defensive.
A Nanos tracking poll released on Sunday put the New Democrats in a statistical tie for second with the Liberals nationally, and dogging the Bloc Quebecois in the fight for first in Quebec.
The poll showed the Conservatives just shy of the amount of 40 percent national support that pollsters say is traditionally needed to win a majority government.
The impact of the NDP’s momentum on the Conservative’s aspirations of majority government will depend on whether Layton grabs voter support from Harper or from Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff.
Harper campaigned over the weekend in British Columbia in a bid to stem growing New Democrat support on the Pacific coast, where the Liberals are seen as trailing both the other parties.
Ignatieff and Layton both campaigned on Sunday in Ontario, where the Conservatives could benefit from vote-splitting by the New Democrats and Liberals on the left side of Canada’s political spectrum.
The Liberals also aired a 30-minute commercial on two English language national networks to promote Ignatieff, a respected academic and journalist who has struggled to get Canadian voters to warm to him.
