“The pace of ramp-up will also largely depend on the extent of physical damage to oil infrastructure, which remains hazy given the country’s general chaos since February,” the analysts said in a note to clients.
Uncertainty about a new Libyan government and the fiscal terms it will set on oil production also cloud the outlook, the analysts said.
Italy’s Eni SpA signed an agreement on Monday with Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC) to resume oil and gas activity in the country.
Eni was the largest foreign oil producer in the North African country before the civil war and is keen to mend relations with rebel leaders.
Oil traders said Eni was seeking to book a tanker for arrival in Libya this week.
Eni, in Libya since 1959, produced about 270,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2010. Its oil production contracts are in force to 2042 and gas contracts to 2047.
Eni will provide technical assistance to rebel authorities to assess the damage to energy infrastructure.
US companies with operations in Libya include ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil. Marathon has held preliminary talks with the NTC.
ConocoPhillps said it was abiding by US economic sanctions on Libya.
