Supply from all 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to average 30.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up from 30.07 million bpd in July, the survey of sources at oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts found.
The survey indicates no sign, yet, that Gulf countries are cutting back on the extra supplies they provided to help cover the loss of Libyan output. August’s total is expected to be OPEC’s highest since October 2008 based on Reuters surveys.
OPEC’s Gulf members boosted supplies unilaterally after African countries, Iran and Venezuela blocked a proposal to increase output targets at OPEC’s last meeting, which was held on June 8.
Output is expected to decline this month in countries including Angola, Iran, Libya and Iraq, the survey found.
OPEC has not officially changed its output policy since cutting output by a record 4.2 million bpd in December 2008 to 24.84 million bpd for 11 members, all except Iraq, to combat falling prices and a collapse in demand.
Since their June meeting, OPEC officials have acknowledged the target is no longer valid as actual supply is so much higher.
OPEC does not provide timely official production figures so the oil industry relies on outside supply estimates from news agencies, consulting firms and government organizations.
Also Tuesday, the newly-appointed chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said oil production can restart within weeks and will reach full pre-war output within 15 months.
“Starting up production will be within weeks, not months. After we start it will take less than 15 months (to reach full output),” Nouri Berouin, chairman of the NOC, said.
The OPEC member was producing 1.6 million barrels per day before an uprising began in February against leader Muammar Qaddafi. The civil war caused foreign workers to flee and some oilfields and export terminals were damaged.
“I have met with international oil companies and the first thing I told them was that we respect all contracts,” he said.
Oil prices edged below $87 a barrel on Tuesday after a drop in economic sentiment in European suggested growth was likely to slow further in coming months.
Benchmark oil for October delivery was down 76 cents to $86.51 in the early afternoon, European time, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude rose $1.90 to settle at $87.27 on Monday.
In London, Brent crude for October delivery was down 58 cents at $111.30 on the ICE Futures exchange.
Crude has jumped 16 percent from near $76 three weeks ago amid growing investor optimism the US economy may not slip into recession in the second half.
Some analysts expect crude to head lower, however, as slowing global economic growth pinches oil demand.
“We still look for weak global demand to win out over the longer term eventually forcing the oil market into fresh low territory,” energy consultant Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report.
In other Nymex trading for October contracts, heating oil rose 0.8 of a cent to $3.01 per gallon and gasoline futures gained 0.6 of a cent to $2.76 per gallon. Natural gas slid 0.7 of a cent to $3.82 per 1,000 cubic feet.
