Nine months after the revolt that swept away President Zine Al-Abdine Ben Ali and sparked uprisings around the Arab world, Tunisians fear the changes they fought for may already be fading.
Most people in this country of 10 million are proud their revolution spread to the rest of the region, and keen to set an example with democratic elections in October. But many worry that Ben Ali loyalists continue to hold positions of power and are working behind the scenes to curtail real change. They are also concerned that divisions, particularly over the role of Islam, could destabilize Tunisia’s transition to democracy and leave the economic problems that helped spark the uprising unresolved.
It’s a similar story in Egypt, where the military council that took control after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak has delayed elections in the Arab world’s most populous country. Some Egyptians worry that they have swapped one dictatorship for another.
In Libya, joy at the capture of Tripoli is still fresh, even if Muammar Qaddafi has so far escaped the rebels. But even here there’s a sense that of trepidation about what comes next.
At least Libyans have reason for hope. In Bahrain, protesters were cleared from the streets, hundreds arrested, and promised reforms have gone nowhere. As violence continues in places such as Syria and Yemen, there is a sense in Tunisia that the Arab Spring needs to prove it can do more than just topple leaders.
Closing the door on the hubbub of his campaign offices, veteran Tunisian political activist and head of the Congress for a Republic party, Moncef Marzouki, runs through the dangers.
“We are in a transitional phase,” says the bespectacled physician. “The problem is I am afraid this transitional phase will last a long time and will be harder than we expect... People here think that a revolution is like pressing a button that brings you from the darkness into the light, but it is not that simple... Will we create a new state, with a new president, with a new government, a parliament? There is still a question mark here and this is the difficulty of this phase, the lack of clarity.”
Since Ben Ali fled into exile in Saudi Arabia on Jan. 14, Tunisian authorities have registered more than 100 parties. The 10 biggest — they range from Islamists to pro-market liberals to Communists — existed in various guises before the revolution.
Only a handful of the smaller, newer parties have any hope of making an impact in elections; most are likely to merge or close down. But to the disgust of many Tunisians, two prominent officials from Ben Ali’s now dissolved Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) have set up their own parties and plan to run, including former foreign minister Kemal Morjane.
By its own claims, the RCD counted around 2 million members before the revolution. Many of these will have joined the party to speed access to services or jobs, but some still have vested interests to protect or are tied by blood, marriage or birthplace to old regime figures.
“They are shameless and they should all be in prison... I hope that the Tunisian people will punish them in the coming elections and will give them zero,” Marzouki said. “But they may play on money or regional loyalties and this could present a danger because the youth will not accept their return at all and if they win in the elections... we will have a new revolution.”
Three polls of voting intentions conducted so far have found over half of Tunisian voters have yet to decide how they will cast their ballots. Support for former regime figures is, so far, too small to register in the statistics. Ben Ali, politicians say, alienated people at every level of society, undermining his own support base over time.
But 25-year-old Sameh Tweiti, who took part in the protests against Ben Ali, said he is still worried that old regime figures, along with their corrupt cliques, might remain in power under the guise of new parties.
The interim government has given the remnants of the old regime licenses to set up political parties, said Tweiti, protesting in central Tunis at a court decision to release a member of the former government. “It is the old regime in new clothes.”
And even if the old regime doesn’t make a comeback, politics is likely to remain messy.
Tunisians will vote for parties to join a constituent assembly — a transitional body whose main task will be to draft a new constitution.
There is little disagreement over the key elements of that document. Most Tunisians agree it must guarantee multi-party politics, freedom of expression and an independent judiciary. It must also enshrine checks on political power by separating the executive from the legislative branch of government. Presidential elections have been postponed, allowing the assembly to consider whether to limit the president’s powers and vest more power in the government.
But fundamental divisions remain, mostly over the country’s identity.
Tunisia’s independence hero and first president Habib Bourguiba was a nationalist and secularist who famously referred to the Muslim veil as an “odious rag.” Tunisia’s existing constitution bans polygamy and safeguards women’s rights in divorce and marriage, making it one of the most progressive in the Arab world. But it also identifies Tunisia as a state whose language is Arabic and religion Islam.
Some secularists want that clause removed, saying it discriminates against Tunisia’s ethnic Berbers as well as its small Jewish community. But Ennahda, a mainstream Islamist party banned under Ben Ali, insists that the clause stay. In an effort to quell concerns the clause could open the way to stronger religious influences on the government, Ennahda’s leader said the group will not seek to tamper with the personal status code, which guarantees women’s rights and is jealously guarded by secularists.
Suspicions run deep on both sides.
Supporters of Ennahda argue the overwhelming majority of Tunisians are Muslim and the country should reflect rather than suppress their traditions. Sick of the rampant corruption of Ben Ali’s rule, many Tunisians see in Ennahda a return to old-fashioned values.
“I will vote for Ennahda,” said one young taxi driver, who confessed he had no interest in politics before the revolution. “They seem honest... They will put us on the right path.”
But secular Tunisians worry that Ennahda says one thing in public and another to its supporters.
Sofiane Chourabi is a young journalist and blogger who organized one of the first political protests in Tunis last December. Meeting him was complicated by the fact that many restaurants and cafes were closed during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. This is a new development. In the past, more eateries remained open during Ramadan; restaurateurs now say they worry about attacks by radical Salafist Islamists — a purist strain within political Islam — who want an Islamic state.
Repressed by Ben Ali, Salafists were accused in July of staging an attack on a cinema showing the film “Ni Dieu, Ni Maitre” (No God, No Master), by director Nadia El-Fani, an outspoken critic of political Islam. The movement remains small and relatively weak, but the Tunisian rumor mill is rife with gossip about their latest efforts to disperse beach-goers and beer-drinkers in this laid-back Mediterranean country where tourism is a major source of income and provides around 400,000 jobs.
