England are also on the verge of reaching the finals after missing out on qualification for the 2008 tournament — a 1-0 home victory over Wales putting them six points clear of Montenegro in Group G.
Giampaolo Pazzini struck in the 85th minute in Florence to confirm Italy as winners of Group C with two games to spare and follow Germany into next year’s 16-nation showpiece which will also contain co-hosts Poland and Ukraine.
Inter Milan striker Pazzini came on as part of a triple substitution by coach Cesare Prandelli as Italy labored to break down a stubborn Slovenia side. His goal put Italy eight points clear of Serbia who face a battle with Estonia to claim the runners-up spot. Serbia beat Faroe Islands 3-1 while Estonia thrashed Northern Ireland 4-1.
The Dutch beat Finland 2-0 but they theoretically still need a point at home to Moldova next month before they can firm up their travel arrangements because both Sweden and Hungary are six points behind with two matches left.
Kevin Strootman and Luuk de Jong were on target for the world’s top-ranked nation to leave Sweden, who won 5-0 against San Marino, and Hungary, 2-0 winners in Moldova, battling for runners-up spot and a playoff route through to the finals.
Ashley Young’s 35th minute goal left England one point away from booking their place in the finals, although they were given a huge let-off at Wembley when Welsh substitute Robert Earnshaw squandered a glorious late chance.
Fabio Capello’s side are six points above Montenegro in Group G although should Montenegro win their last two matches against England and Switzerland they would top the group.
France edged closer to the finals with a 0-0 draw against Romania in Group D although they still have work to do after Bosnia pulled to within a point of Laurent Blanc’s side with a 1-0 win against Belarus.
Top spot is likely top be decided in the final game between France and Bosnia in Paris next month.
The shock of the night came in Group B in Zilina where Slovakia were beaten 4-0 at home by Armenia who have given themselves an outside chance of a qualifying.
Victory would have put Slovakia level on points with group leaders Russia who drew 0-0 at home to second-placed Ireland.
With two matches left all four nations are still in with a chance going into next month’s final fixtures which include Russia away to Slovakia and Ireland at home to Armenia.
Croatia moved a point above Greece at the top of Group F thanks to a 3-1 home victory against Israel while Greece could manage only a 1-1 draw in Latvia. Greece host Croatia next month.
Group H is still too close to call with three sides locked on 13 points after Denmark beat Nordic rivals Norway 2-0 in Copenhagen. Portugal, who were not in action on Tuesday, top the group on goal difference.
