Yemen has been paralyzed by more than eight months of protests demanding an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s 33-year rule, sparking bloody clashes across the country between loyalist troops and those who have defected to the opposition.
Fierce fighting in Sanaa last month nearly dragged the Arabian Peninsula country into civil war, while Al-Qaeda militants have seized parts of a southern province that lies east of a major international shipping lane.
“The international community has decided we need to up the pressure now,” one senior western diplomat in Sanaa said. “No decision has been taken yet over what type of resolution we might try ... But we do need to move beyond statements now.”
Several Western diplomats in New York told Reuters that the Americans, British and French have been outlining a possible draft resolution that would urge Yemen to stick with a Gulf-brokered transition process.
Saleh has thrice backed out of signing the transition deal, raising fears of rising turmoil which could embolden militants and increase instability on the doorstep of top oil exporter Saudi Arabia.
“The idea is to keep Yemen under pressure. This would put both sides of the conflict under the microscope,” another diplomat in Sanaa said.
The United States, Britain and France had not yet shared their outline proposed resolution with Russia and China, the other two permanent members of the Security Council, diplomats in New York said.
Nor are there any clear signs that Moscow and Beijing would be willing to support such a resolution in the council.
“We don¹t want to take on Yemen until the Council has approved something on Syria,” a diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
The European members of the Security Council have been working in recent days to persuade Russia to accept a watered-down resolution on Syria that would threaten “targeted measures” against Damascus if it fails to end its crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators without explicitly threatening UN sanctions, Council diplomats said.
European envoys say that they hope the Council will vote on the Syria resolution on Tuesday.
The Security Council issued a statement on Yemen in late June that voiced “grave concern” about the situation there and welcomed “the ongoing mediation efforts of the Gulf Cooperation Council to help the parties find agreement on a way forward.”
That statement came after months of disagreement on Yemen due to Russian and Chinese objections about what they saw as interference in the domestic affairs of a sovereign state, Western diplomats said.
At the time, the United States and Saudi Arabia were pushing Saleh to hand over power to his deputy.
The opposition has accused the government of slowing talks after Saleh’s surprise return last week from a three-month absence in Saudi Arabia, where he was being treated after a failed assassination attempt.
Many diplomats involved in negotiations say the two sides are stuck in a perpetual cycle of near-deals that are never finalized and often disrupted by a spike in violence.
“I think the players know the urgency of this, and yet they’re not rushing because they hope maybe there is something better waiting for them,” another senior diplomat said.
Ruling party officials have privately expressed anxieties over an increase in pressure should the spotlight be fixed on them at the Security Council.
“This will be a serious concern for the government — it’s not the first resolution they worry about, which would probably be light. It’s the second and those that come after that could be worse,” said Yemeni analyst Ali Seif Hassan. “This would be a great form of pressure.”
UN envoy Jamal Benomar, who has been mediating between the opposition and the government for two weeks, is due back in New York in the coming days to brief the Security Council.
A resolution could be proposed soon after, some sources said, if negotiations in Sanaa appeared deadlocked.
Gerd Nonneman, a Gulf specialist at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Saleh’s family was reluctant to relinquish power because of inconsistent international statements.
Demands Saleh step down have been interspersed with praise for counter-terrorism cooperation with forces led mostly by his relatives, which Nonneman said let the Saleh family believe that consensus against their rule was not clear.
“The resolution must be very clear that there needs to be a transition based on the document agreed that must be signed and acted on right now - or else,” he said. “But I have my doubts the language will be sufficiently clear.”
