NPT reform will give fillip to a nuclear-weapons-free world
INDIA with a population of 1.2 billion people having 20 nuclear reactors spread over the length and breadth of the country and an estimated stockpile of 100 nuclear warheads remains one of the major clients of the global nuclear trade.
So much so that even conservative countries like Australia, having refused steadfastly to encourage nuclear commerce with a non-Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) signatory state like India, has finally given in to the demands of market forces.
In the backdrop of continued apprehension of an enhanced arms race in the Indian subcontinent, such alteration of political values vis-à-vis nuclear disarmament assumes strategic significance from a global non-proliferation standpoint. However for New Delhi, the breakthrough is latent with a subtle message — that of the international community addressing the question of universal adherence to the NPT on a case by case basis and formulating ways to upgrade the treaty in tune with a rapidly evolving world order and security scenario.
It would be naïve for the diplomatic establishment to imagine that the leading players in the nuclear cycle would keep themselves out of the global push for complete nuclear disarmament having been enticed by the depth of the Indian market.
Rather any assured concession should be put into perspective for deciphering the options available with India. There is no doubt that countries like Australia will be on board with riders and principles seeking written commitment on test moratorium, intrusive verification of Indian nuclear facilities and export control system prior to the transfer of yellow cake. I will also try to co-opt a non-signatory country like India into the NPT regime through the backdoor.
Such a move is fraught with the possibility of not only igniting the traditional question of “whether to sign the NPT or not” that the foreign office mandarins have been sitting on for quite sometime now but also exposing the contradictions between India’s nuclear philosophy and the policy that the nation is actually pursuing.
Instead of consigning the debate to posterity, it is time that nuclear diplomats start scavenging for virtues in joining the NPT club. It is true that India is yet to attain perfection in weaponization of thermonuclear technology and has refused to sign NPT on the ground of this statute being discriminatory and overtly favoring institutionalization of military supremacy of the elite group that tested nuclear weapons prior to 1967.
But how long can India withstand international pressure in the face of a rising domestic demand for clean energy remains a big question. As the country’s incremental power shortages is expected to curb overall growth rate by 1.2 percent annually, nuclear energy source has been identified as an alternative quick fix to underpin the economy by boosting electricity production. Being a de-facto nuclear weapon state, New Delhi nowadays is seeking to engage the international community through good use of the non-proliferation forums. It is, therefore, actively pitching for full membership of the four global multilateral regimes namely Nuclear Suppliers Group, Missile Technology Control regime, Australia Group and Wassenaar Arrangement.
The global powers must make all endeavors to meet India halfway down the road with complete reciprocity if it truly wants to establish a utilitarian nonproliferation edifice that will become the fulcrum for complete elimination of nuclear weapons from the face of earth. The predominant thinking beyond the virile Indian opposition to NPT revolves around two major issues:
Limited realistic opportunities to enter the nonproliferation group with honors and dignity of a nuclear weapons state and little appreciation of the country’s voluntary compliance with the NPT objectives in spite of crossing the nuclear threshold twice in the past.
Tweaking the clauses of NPT to accommodate dissenting nations with due status will ultimately strengthen the objective of disarmament in the long run while stabilizing volatility in South Asia, Middle East and Korean peninsula. Though such action entails favoritism for a few, it is worth taking a risk.
Moreover, there should be parity in the obligations of nuclear aspirants and existing weapon holders including opening up of all atomic facilities — both civil and military — for stringent scrutiny by the International Atomic Energy Agency observers. This will not only help create a level playing field by way of universal, non-discriminatory verification and treatment but also mold public opinion in favor of a transformed and more transparent NPT. It is high time for the P5 states to recognize that status and symbolism are a critical component of any developing nation’s strategic calculus.
In addition, reforming the NPT will provide a perfect push for instituting more nuclear weapon-free zones throughout the globe to augment the collective security of mankind. With no less than five international treaties currently bolstering the requisite framework for nuclear de-escalation in potentially sensitive areas of conflict, there is no reason why the Arab world including Israel and the South Asian neighbors India, Pakistan as well as China cannot jointly enter into a mutual agreement of non-aggression in respective theaters while identifying practically enforceable confidence building measures for the short term.
A judiciously adopted cooperative approach on the part of political leadership in these countries can help defy the very belief that such an idea of dismantling killer nuclear, chemical and biological armaments is nothing but a utopian fantasy. Surely, there is no dearth of statesman in these nations who can recognize that the ultimate security of their citizens lies in eschewing weapons of mass destruction of all forms.
— The author is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.
