Is Pakistan prepared to give peace talks another chance?

The volatile relationship between Tehreek-e-Taleban (TTP) and Pakistan continues. The TTP has made a fresh conditional offer to the government of Pakistan to return to the negotiation table and reach a truce agreement. This offer comes in the backdrop of deadly attacks against minority Shiites in Hangu and a military installation in Lakki Marwat. A contradiction between the action and words of TTP has only fueled greater confusion among the public and favored continuation of military action against them.
Taleban have expressed a willingness to cease violence if the security forces give guarantee of three senior political and religious leaders, including the opposition leader Nawaz Sharif.
Although the government is yet to respond to the dialogue offer, the recent development has divided Pakistan’s political and military elite. While Pakistan›s main opposition party, PML-N led by Nawaz Sharif, has welcomed the offer, many others remain skeptical about the Taleban.
According to Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based political analyst, the Taleban “are trying to build domestic pressure because Islamist parties support peace talks and Sharif’s stand is ambiguous.
These interlocutors have no political weight with the military, they can’t play any role.” However, it is believed that reaching a deal may help the country achieve peace at least in the short-term. This would allow the country to hold smooth general elections and further strengthen the democratic process.
It is important to understand that TTP comprises several dozen militant organizations, who are led by Hakimullah Mehsud but not under his direct control. Commanders of these groups may be easily influenced by Al-Qaeda and try to sabotage the peace efforts. The TTP may favor talks as successive military operations and drone strikes against them have severely damaged their operational capability. At the same time, Afghan Taleban now prominently feature on the international scene and are almost certain to be a part of any post-Karzai official setup in Kabul.
Pakistan government’s strategy to counter insurgency has centered on pitching the so- called good Taleban, who do not attack Pakistani targets, against the bad ones. However, the strategy has not delivered the desired results as militants have continued to spark violence in Pakistan and also attacked coalition installations in Afghanistan. Further, this strategy has been disapproved by the international community as it continues to pose a challenging security environment in the region. Pakistan’s military has termed the internal threat from militants as the country’s No. 1 enemy and remains convinced that the mixed signals provided by Taleban lean toward a military confrontation.
In 2011, the TTP and Pakistani government had reached a secret deal before the start of spring offensive. Under this arrangement, the Taleban had agreed not to hurt Pakistani security forces in the tribal areas. Instead, they had decided to focus their energies on reuniting different factions in Waziristan and aggressively battle the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan. This saw the birth of Shura-e-Muraqaba, which consisted of five key Al-Qaeda-linked Afghan Taleban groups and reposed its trust in the leadership of Mullah Omar. What was described by Najam Sethi, a senior Pakistani analyst, as “an attempt by Pakistan to change track and show both sides that they are serious about a settlement and an endgame,” backfired. The spring of 2012 turned out to be brutal for US-led forces as negotiations allowed the TTP to regroup and support multiple deadly attacks targeted at Western embassies, NATO force’s headquarters and parliament building in Kabul.
Traditionally, the US has taken a firm stance against terrorist and militant organizations, and chosen to deal them with an iron hand. Following the same policy, it has warned Pakistan against reaching any peace deal with the TTP. The US believes that the latest talks offer is another ploy by the fugitive leader of Afghan Taleban Mullah Mohammad Omar, to win some time and prepare well for the annual spring offensive. During the past decade, the Taleban are known to have launched high intensity attacks against US and coalition forces based in Afghanistan after the end of winter season. A cease-fire would allow the militants in Afghanistan to reach greater physical cooperation with their factions in Pakistan. As the 2014 deadline for withdrawal of coalition forces draws close, the Taleban may believe that they are in a stronger than ever position to launch a spring offensive. Even after suffering from heavy losses, Taleban pose a resilient threat to the US-led allied forces and have the capacity to cause extensive damage under inhospitable fighting conditions.
If Pakistan warms up to the dialogue offer made by Taleban, the US could be annoyed and retaliate by suspending military and economic assistance to the struggling country. Meanwhile, Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron has also issued a direct appeal to the Taleban to enter peaceful talks on the future of Afghanistan. It remains to be seen how the US and Taleban respond to this statement. Till then, achieving peace in the region remains a distant dream.