Post-election scenario in Egypt
It’s difficult to make sense of Egypt’s presidential elections given the ascendance of Islamists beyond the widest dream of the most optimists of their supporters.
However, it seems as though Egypt is poised to be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood for some time to come. Not only did they do well in the last parliamentarian elections, but also their candidate for the presidential elections emerged a serious contender for the post.
If anything, the political contests between the military and the old regime on the one hand and the Islamists on the other hand is far from being finished. Two issues came to the surface recently. First, the military proved to be shrewd in handling the Egyptian revolution. The military moved slowly and in time it emerged as the most important player in the political game.
Their understanding is that the army is untouchable or subject to election gambits. For this reason, the ruling general fought tooth and nail to get the army out of the political game in such a way that it is not subordinate to the president anymore. Yet it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that any force seeking influence in politics has to deal positively with the army.
Second, the old regime’s candidate, Ahmed Shafiq, proved to be strong enough to stand up to Islamists who thought their time had arrived. All along he based his strategy on two factors. First, the Copts’ fears of an Islamist takeover, thus bringing the sectarian crisis to the fore. Second, the Muslim Brotherhood committed a number of fatal mistakes that pushed many people to revise their favorable attitude toward them. We have not seen a political vision that can qualify to a political platform. Islamists instead remain in the realm of preaching while failing to understand that the Egyptian revolution was about finding solution to the most pressing and burning issues of economics and freedom. The Muslim Brotherhood’s language has been exclusive thus creating more fears among average Egyptians.
Pundits, analysis and indeed Western leaders have been watching the development of Egyptian politics fearing that a complete Islamists’ takeover may create a different environment with which all parties need to contend.
The key question, though, is about individual liberties. The working assumption among politicians and analysts is that an Islamist-dominated Egypt may not be conducive to individual liberties and freedom. Some even went too far when they refuse to accept that the Muslim Brotherhood will be inclusive and be leaning toward pluralism. While some even brought up the Taleban model, conditions on the ground will prevent Islamists from shaping Egyptian society in their own vision because the majority of Egyptians, though Muslim but not Islamist, will not accept it and because of the army firm position.
While it is difficult to predict which way it will be going, one thing is clear. The non-Islamist parties and political groups have learned the lesson. These are the forces that triggered the revolution and contributed to no small amount to its success. They share a sense of dismay as they feel that Islamists just kidnapped their revolution. Their efforts to bring about a genuine change became hostage to a contest between the army and the Islamists. It seems that liberal and non-Islamist forces are not effective in the current battle. That said, these forces are prone to rethink its approach and perhaps joint forces to present a formidable front in months to come.
Interestingly, there are some forces in Egypt that can’t afford to wait for the formulation of an impressive non-Islamist force to contend from a position of strength with the Islamists. Here, I refer to the army. The developments in Egypt over the past week have thrown what had been a confused set of institutional arrangements into disarray. The ruling generals declared the parliamentary elections unconstitutional and they announced a supplementary constitutional declaration as a hedge against the new president. Given the uncertainty of the future, the army moved swiftly to ensure the continuation of its political role after the inauguration of the president. More importantly, the army granted itself a new, strong voice in the constitution-writing process.
The presidential elections have debunked a myth about the Islamists’ organizing capabilities. Ahmed Shafiq proved them vulnerable to a well-planned campaign. Not surprisingly, the army leaned toward Ahmed Shafiq as a candidate for stability. They managed to manipulate the election process and they effectively used the state media as well as private medial outlets to frighten the Egyptians about a looming theocracy. More importantly, the military managed to play off the political forces against each other, thus weakening the new forces. Simply put, the military managed to alienate the Muslim Brotherhood from the rest of the revolutionary forces.
The near future will witness a serious conflict in Egypt. Islamists are finally exposed and the Egyptian society is most unlikely to accept autocracy in the form of theocracy. People fought tooth and nail to win their freedom not to hand it over to Islamists. Although, they proved to be strong, the Islamists themselves are surprised that the other camps are equally strong. Therefore, it takes some organization and the other forces can be a formidable political force in years to come.
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