A year ago, I predicted that the most distinctive aspect of 2017 would be uncertainty, fueled by — among other things — Donald Trump’s election as US president and the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The only certainty, it seemed, was uncertainty, and that the future could be very messy.
December 29, 2017
As Hurricane Irma pummeled the low-lying keys in the state of Florida before moving toward its mainland on Sunday, Texas is still counting the cost of Hurricane Harvey, which left in its wake upended lives and enormous property damage, estimated by some at up to $180 billion.
September 11, 2017
Every January, I try to craft a forecast for the coming year. Economic forecasting is notoriously difficult; but, notwithstanding the truth expressed in Harry Truman’s request for a one-armed economist (who would not be able to say “on the other hand”), my record has been credible.
January 12, 2017
As US President-elect Donald Trump fills his Cabinet, what have we learned about the likely direction and impact of his administration’s economic policy?
December 20, 2016
As I have traveled around the world in recent weeks, I am repeatedly asked two questions: Is it conceivable that Donald Trump could win the US presidency? And how did his candidacy get this far in the first place?
October 17, 2016
Digesting the full implications of the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum will take Britain, Europe, and the world a long time. The most profound consequences will, of course, depend on the European Union’s response to the UK’s withdrawal.
July 08, 2016
For 200 years, there have been two schools of thought about what determines the distribution of income — and how the economy functions. One, emanating from Adam Smith and nineteenth-century liberal economists, focuses on competitive markets.
May 19, 2016