Testing times in Ethiopia
ONCE again it is the same old question about the individual's role in shaping the history of a nation and for that matter its regional impact as well. Eyes now are focusing on Ethiopia, where its veteran, shrewd statesman Meles Zenawi passed away Monday night. Zenawi was not seen in public since mid-June. The unusual absence sparked the usual barrage of rumors, predictions and analysis. After all Zenawi has been the man who pulled the country together for more than two decades amid difficult domestic, regional and international sea of troubles.
He managed to make history following his successful bid to get the broad Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, more or less run by the core Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) to replace the old regime of the Amhara. After assuming the reins, he also managed to achieve a relative degree of socio, politico and economic stability in a country of close to 85 million people and turned it into a regional power, a donors' darling and a success story in attracting foreign investments that were pouring at a rate of an average of $ 4 billion a year. No wonder Ethiopia boasted that it has been achieving an unparalleled African growth rate of some 9 percent on average over the past decade. No wonder Zenawi was the face representing Africa in global gatherings, be it the G8 or the G20.
However, the economic achievement comes with a price in terms of rising cost of living by some 40 percent a year which is making it difficult for many Ethiopians to make ends meet and the same time Ethiopia continues to be one of the most poor places on earth. However, his ambitious plans to set up dams to generate more hydroelectricity and increase output five folds by year 2015 faced controversy.
The plan, which started to bear some fruits in terms of exporting some electricity to Sudan, Kenya and Djibouti, is attracting some criticism from some environmentalists, who are raising their concerns that such mammoth projects are adversely affecting the environment with expected negative impact on parts of population.
It is no longer an academic debate as these groups started to rally around Lake Turkana, where a $1.7 billion Gibe III hydroelectric dam is supposed to be constructed with the help of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. The defendants argue that more than half a million people will be affected and that Lake Turkana, known as the world's largest permanent desert lake, will be affected too.
Water issues don't stop here. Zenawi had managed to stage a coup as far as the sensitive Nile waters issues are concerned where he succeeded to corner both Egypt and Sudan on what they claimed to be their historical share in Nile water, an issue that will be open for more developments.
But more serious is the growing Ethiopian role regionally where it has been a pacifying force in the troubled land of Somalia by sending its troops with the tacit world approval. Equally important is its role in Sudan that extended beyond hosting the laborious post separation talks between Sudan and South Sudan to provide the needed force to police the disputed Abyei region till a permanent solution is found eventually. The United Nations found no choice but to endorse the tripartite agreement reached between Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia to demilitarize Abyei.
Can Ethiopia hold in the absence of the man who has been running the show almost single handedly since his TPLF stormed Addis Ababa back in 1991 to end the reign of terror of former dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam?
In theory there should not be a problem. Back in 2009, Zenawi told the Financial Times that Ethiopia would eventually see the first peaceful transfer of power.
That transfer seems to have come more quickly than anybody had anticipated, including Zenawi himself. The question is whether his tipped successor Hailemariam Desalegn, a civil engineer who later became the country's top diplomat, can fill Zenawi's shoes or the old guard headed by the army's chief of staff Gen. Samora Younis will have their say. In a nutshell more than two decades of achievements are being put to test.
- This article is exclusive to Arab News.
