Transition without political chaos important for Georgia’s stability

Georgia looks set to achieve a peaceful and democratic handover of power following President Mikheil Saakashvili’s defeat in parliamentary elections, a rarity in a region known for poll unrest and autocrats who refuse to let go.
Georgia long tried to portray itself as a “beacon of democracy” in the former Soviet Union and the outcome of the parliamentary elections could boost the country’s image, analysts say.
In other ex-Soviet states from Azerbaijan to Tajikistan strongman leaders cling tightly to power, but Saakashvili dramatically admitted his party’s defeat and vowed to hand over to the opposition led by his bitter rival, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.
“It’s a monumental development. It’s an unprecedented event in any former Soviet republic excluding the Baltic states,” Lawrence Sheets, Caucasus project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, said. The surprise move by Saakashvili turned the tables on critics who labeled him a dictator and showed how far Georgia had come in its “democratic transformation,” said Alexander Rondeli of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies.
“It’s good for the country’s image,” Rondeli said. The polls also drew qualified praise from OSCE international observers who called them an “important step” for the Western-backed country’s democratic development.
Saakashvili was swept to power in the 2003 “Rose Revolution” by a wave of anger against corruption but his party’s dominance has been ended amid another upsurge of righteous fury — this time sparked by a scandal over torture in prisons.
The defeat takes Georgia into unknown territory.
Like Saakashvili’s party, Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition says it wants to join NATO and the EU while mending relations with arch-foe Russia, but it remains unclear how these seemingly incompatible ideas will be translated into action. It is also unclear whether an Ivanishvili government packed with staunch enemies of Saakashvili might seek retribution against hate figures from the previous administration.
Ivanishvili has said that only former officials who committed crimes will “face justice.”
This brings to mind the campaign against former Ukrainian Premier Yulia Tymoshenko and other allies who were jailed after they lost power to arch rival Viktor Yanukovych in 2010.
“When Yanukovych won elections they were praised as a democratic transfer of power but the net result was a decrease in democracy,” independent Georgian analyst Ghia Nodia said.
“Ivanishvili still has to prove that he really is a democrat,” Nodia said.
Witch-hunts could cause turmoil in the country, warned Sheets.
“The two sides must realize the potential consequences of destabilization,” he said. Ivanishvili says he intends to become prime minister, a position that will gain strong new powers next year when the president’s role is reduced by constitutional changes after Saakashvili ends his two-term rule. Until Saakashvili does step down, the two rivals will have to work together somehow. Yet Ivanishvili has already called on Saakashvili to resign.
“It will certainly not be easy for them to find a common language,” said Rondeli.
But a transition without political chaos will be crucial for Georgia’s stability, Sheets said. “It’s up to the wisdom of the two leaders to come to an agreement,” he said. “It depends on how much they really care about their country, not just about themselves.” In a controversial move that troubled the West, Ivanishvili was stripped of his Georgian citizenship after announcing last year that he would challenge Saakashvili, and is currently a French citizen. But under constitutional amendments tailored to Ivanishvili, a Georgian-born citizen of EU-member state who has permanently lived in Georgia for the past five years now enjoys all political rights including the right to head the government.

— Agence France Presse