RIYADH, 6 May 2003 — Saudi Arabia is forecast to wipe out a projected $10.4 billion deficit for 2003 and achieve a surplus of $4 billion, an economic report said yesterday.
The forecast is based on an average oil production of 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and an average price for the crude at $22 for 2003, the quarterly report of Riyad Bank said. The report expects total government revenues to hit $59.7 billion and expenditures to remain at the projected $55.7 billion.
Revenues were budgeted at $45.3 billion.
The surplus is lower than National Commercial Bank projections — based on an average oil price at $24 and oil output at 8.7 million bpd — which put the budget surplus at $13 billion.
The Riyad Bank report predicted a fall in oil prices to between $15 to $18 a barrel in the second half of this year.
The report revised upward its projections for the growth in nominal and real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2003 to 4.45 percent and 5.4 percent respectively.
