Want to be an armchair analyst and guess the results of the American presidential election on Nov. 2, polling day, before anyone else?

Here is how to do it.

The first fact you should rely on is turnout. A heavy turnout favors Kerry because it means his supporters have succeeded in getting African-American and union voters to the polls. Conversely, a light or moderate turnout helps Bush, because Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.

Then come women voters. To win, Kerry needs to mirror Al Gore ‘s success in 2000, when he beat Bush by 10 percentage points among women. If Kerry falls short there, he will be in trouble.

The early clues will be based on these two factors: If the turnout is heavy and women are lining up behind Kerry, he will be hard to beat. But if neither is happening, it’s a good night for Bush. What makes these measurements especially useful is that they will be available from surveys taken before the polls close. Voters are interviewed in so-called “exit polls” after they have cast their ballots, and that information is analyzed.

Another way to get a read on what is happening is focusing on how the battle for electoral votes is playing out. As you know, 270 are needed to make a president.

But you already have a good sense of how the voting will go because of various polls already taken. They show that Bush has a lock on 181 to 205 electoral votes. Thus, he needs from 65 to 89, depending on which survey you use.

Those polls also show Kerry running behind Bush with 168 to 198 electoral votes. He needs from 72 to 102.

That simplifies matters considerably. And you can make it even simpler. To do that, you need only to study the electoral votes from the states that are too close to call. There are 12: Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Together they total 135 electoral votes.

But there is no need to dwell on all of them. Four will suffice: Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Together, they represent 83 electoral votes.

If either candidate captures all four, he will win the election. You can call it a night - early. But what if they divide that pool, which is the more likely scenario given the closeness of the election?

Once again, look to Florida. Whoever wins that state with its 27 electoral votes will have a huge leg up. Next, focus on the two states that Kerry should win, New Jersey, whose governor and two US senators are Democrats, and Pennsylvania, the home state of his wife, Teresa. If he loses them, he’s in serious trouble. Where Bush is concerned, he will be on the ropes if he stumbles in Ohio and Pennsylvania. That’s why he’s been living in those states lately.

But guessing the results before they are announced may well not be the end of the road. Both the Republicans and Democrats are bracing themselves for long and tortuous legal battles over recounts in at least six, and probably even 15, battleground states.

And that is one result that you cannot guess. That may well be left to the courts, right up to the United States Supreme Court.