WASHINGTON, 5 November 2004 — Now that the Bush Administration has regained the White House, Bush and his aides are focusing on the transition process.

Although the administration is still officially mum about a second-term lineup, most speculation focuses on the foreign policy and national security jobs - those primary players who shaped the administration’s foreign policy doctrine.

The scramble for mid-level administration jobs will soon kick into gear when the “Plum Book,” the guide to the executive branch’s political jobs published after each election, is published sometime next month.

It is certain there will be plenty of changes. “It makes the exodus from South Florida during the hurricane look like child’s play,” said Brookings Institution presidential appointments specialist Paul C. Light.

State Department

Many expect Colin Powell and Richard Armitage to depart. The secretary and his deputy, considered moderates who were wary of pre-emptive action in Iraq, lost the major battles over the war to neo-conservatives within the administration in well-publicized clashes.

Colleagues now say Powell may not be in such a hurry to leave, especially if he feels that he can make progress on securing Iraq and holding elections there after the first of the year.

If Powell does resign — thoughts are he will return to private life or accept the presidency of the World Bank.

Names circulating as the most likely successor are Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser — unless she decides to replace Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Rice has already said she does not wish to stay on as national security adviser. Another choice is former Sen. John F. Danforth, who is now United Nations ambassador.

Until several weeks ago, many thought the top diplomatic job, if vacant, could go to Paul Bremer III, the US official who governed Iraq after the invasion. But his standing within the Bush team dropped sharply when, earlier this month, he criticized the administration for policy and tactical errors in Iraq.

Attention has also focused on Danforth of Missouri, the new ambassador to the United Nations. Danforth, who served as Bush’s special envoy to Sudan at the start of the administration and spent 18 years in the Senate, would bring stature and experience to the position.

Other possibilities: Danforth’s predecessor at the United Nations, John D. Negroponte, a career diplomat who serves as the current ambassador to Iraq; or, a bolder choice, Sen. Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, who has accused the administration of “incompetence” in its handling of postwar Iraq.

Defense

Republicans believe Rumsfeld would like to stay on at the Pentagon for a year or two, until things settle down in Iraq and he can leave on a higher note.

Less clear is the future of his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, one of the chief architects of the war. Given the current chaos in Iraq, Democrats and Republicans alike say it is unlikely Wolfowitz could be confirmed by the Senate to succeed his boss - or step up to any other Cabinet-level position.

Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain has been talked about, too. But McCain is more likely to stay put in the Senate - a better position from which to speak one’s mind, and possibly to launch a 2008 presidential bid.

National Security Adviser

A Republican national security specialist said he doesn’t expect the president to look for a big name to replace Rice.

Paul D. Wolfowitz, the deputy defense secretary, who was an early advocate of invading Iraq, had been considered. But Wolfowitz has become a target of criticism because of the failure to find major unconventional weapons in Iraq.

Other possible replacements: US Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick, deputy national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley, or another of Rice’s deputies, Iraq expert Robert Blackwill.

Homeland Security

Department Secretary Tom Ridge is expected to leave, possibly for another job in the administration. A favorite to replace him is former Rep. Asa Hutchinson, undersecretary for border and transportation security.

Intelligence

It is assumed that Bush’s recently appointed CIA director, former Rep. Porter J. Goss, will remain in his job or move up to become national intelligence director if Congress votes to create the position, as the 9/11 Commission recommended.

Justice

Republicans think that Attorney General John Ashcroft will not stay on for a second Bush term. The attorney general, who has turned the Justice Department into an important weapon in the campaign against terror, is said by some associates to want to return to his home state, Missouri, which he served as both governor and United States senator. Ashcroft had gallbladder surgery in March.

His rumored successor: Marc Racicot, the former Montana governor who is chairman of the president’s re-election campaign. Racicot was a contender for the job in 2000.