JEDDAH/BAGHDAD, 7 November 2004 — In Fallujah and other localities in the so-called “Triangle of Death”, the writing has been on the wall for some time: From The Polling Box to the Coffin (Min Al-Sanduq Il Al-Sanduq!). The slogan underlines the determination of Iraq insurgents and their Arab extremist allies to prevent the holding of elections at any price. Statements from more than a dozen radical groups fighting the Interim Iraqi government and the US-led coalition promise to provoke a blood bath to prevent the Iraqis from voting.
The spectacle of daily violence with suicide bombings and booby-trapped cars becoming a feature of daily life in at least three of Iraq’s 18 provinces the insurgents’ threat could be seen as something more than a bluff. Many of the 400 or so Iraqis recruited as election officers have already received death threats. Some have been warned that they or their children would be abducted and beheaded. The 36 foreign election officers working for the United Nations are also targeted.
The anti-election front also has some international support. France has been working hard to get the elections postponed until after the US-led coalition forces have left Iraq.
United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, for his part, has tried to cast doubts on the possibility of holding elections through a series of contradictory remarks.
And, yet, Iraq is beginning to get the election bug.
“People like elections,” says Muhammad Salih, an election officer working in the Al-Imarah province. “Everyone I meet is thrilled at the prospect of being able to vote in a free election for the first time. Frankly, we never dreamed we would see the day when we could choose our form of government and those who run it.”
Political parties, candidates and voters started registering last week for elections planned for next year, most probably on Jan. 27, for the National Assembly.
“It is a completely new experience for us to have a democratic and free exercise in Iraq says Talal Madhat Serri, a leader of the Assembly for Iraq party.
As might have been expected in a nation emerging from almost half a century of one-party rule, Iraq is experiencing an inflation of parties. By the latest count there are over 160 political parties that represent every niche of the population, from communists to prisoners. Nowhere else in the Muslim world would one find such a complete spectrum of ideologies, opinions, and political temperaments.
“Only 40 to 50 will meet party registration requirements,” says Abdul Hussein Hindawi, chairman of the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq. Among the requirements for parties participating: A minimum of 500 members. Talks are already under way among many of these parties to merge or at least form big electoral blocs to get seats in the future assembly.
The 400 or so daily newspapers and weekly and monthly magazines that have appeared in Iraq since liberation are also divided across ethnic, religious and ideological lines, offering the voters a wide array of competing ideas and opinions.
Voters’ registration is expected to be completed by the end of December. The initial rolls are based on lists used for the oil-for-food ration program ran by the United Nations during sanctions in the 1990s.
Over the next eight weeks Iraqis will be able to examine the published lists to see whether or not their names are included. Those whose names feature on the list will then receive electoral cards indicating the poling station where they would cast their ballots. Those not on the list should make an application and prove their place of residence to be given an electoral card. This is especially important for the estimated 1.8 million Iraqis who have returned home from exile since liberation in 2003. Under Saddam Hussein over 400 Kurdish villages were razed to the grounds and their inhabitants driven into Turkey and Iran. Many are now streaming back only to find out that their villages have reappeared as fully Arab settlements during the past 25 years.
Similar problems also dog election officers in the south where many Shiites have returned home from exile in neighboring Iran. The year 2005 is slated to witness three or even four elections in Iraq.
In the first election, voters will be casting ballots for a 275-member National Assembly. The assembly will choose a president and two vice-presidents for a period of transition. The following election would be a referendum to approve or reject the text of the new constitution. After that municipal elections will be held in accordance with the new constitution. Next will come a general election for a new Parliament, although this one may not be possible until early 2006.
It is the presidential aspect of the election that seems to be generating most interest at present. Many expect the current interim President Ghazi Al-Yawar to stand as a Sunni-Shiite consensus candidate. Adnan Pachachi, a former foreign minister and grand old man of Iraqi diplomacy, may also be persuaded to stand, although, aged 82, he may not wish to face the rigors of the hustings.
Since the proposed constitution aims at creating a parliamentary system, with the prime minister wielding real executive power, it is unlikely that the better-known politicians of the new elite would want to seek the presidency. Instead, they are expected to head lists of candidates for the legislative in the hope of winning a majority and forming the government.
There are some early surprising candidates. Wijdan Al-Khuza’ie, 42, a mother of five, is running for president under the Democratic Women’s Society party, a secular group that claims 2,000 members. “I feel the pain of everybody suffering in this country,” she says. “A woman president would completely change the image of Iraq that is still equated with brutal male dictators.”
The major parties are still primarily ethnic groups, like the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni Muslim group. Shiites make up almost 60% of the country’s 25 million people, but the government has been dominated by Arab Sunni Muslims, who are about 20% of the population.
Since the new constitution forbids the government from banning any political party, there is still a possibility that the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, the ruling group under Saddam, Hussein, may be allowed to field its own candidates. L Paul Bremer III, the American diplomat who headed the Coalition Provisional Authority until the end of June, issued an edict disbanding the Ba’ath. But the interim government is not bound by Bremer’s decisions. And the Ba’athists may challenge any attempt at preventing them from taking part. There are many Ba’athists who opposed Saddam and fled into exile during his reign of terror. They claim that the Ba’ath Party, too, was a victim of Saddam along with the rest of Iraqi society.
“Saddam destroyed the Ba’ath Party along with everything else in Iraq,” says Ghazban Hazbawi. “ He kept the name of the party but the reality of his power was base don his Mafia-type organization of the Takritis, the security services and the criminal underworld.”
Some Sunni groups have threatened to boycott the elections, fearful that Shiites will end up controlling the new government.
Another potential obstacle: Parts of the country, including Fallujah, 40 miles west of Baghdad, are under militant control or domination. United Nations officials, who are advising the Iraqi electoral commission, worry that people in those regions won’t get to vote. “To be already speculating about big parts of the country not being able to take part in the process certainly doesn’t help the process or its credibility,” says Carlos Valenzuela, the UN’s chief election adviser in Iraq.
Mohammed Ali, an aide to interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, says even people in restive areas will want to vote. “If anything, people (in those areas) will be more determined to participate in the election, regardless of circumstances,” Ali says. “January 2005 is like a holy date on the calendar.”
In any case most observers believe that Fallujah and one or two other cities where violence has become endemic will be brought under control well before the elections.
Prime Minister Allawi has vowed to make sure that every Iraqi would have an opportunity to vote in an atmosphere of peace and security.
Some Iraqis are dismissive of the elections, saying there are more pressing problems. “Why would we bother about elections when we have no stability, no security. We don’t care,” says Khuder Abdullah, 57, a farmer from Kirkuk.
It is not yet clear how many people will be eligible to vote. The initial electoral register established by the United Nations consists of the names and addresses of just over 12 million people. A further 2.5 million are expected to be added when returning refugees and internally displaced person come forward to register. But complications could occur as a result of a government decision to allow Iraqi expatriates also to vote.
No one quite knows how many people would be concerned. Iraq has been one of the world’s biggest sources of refugees in the past five decades. The first massive wave of refugees consisted of Iraqi Jews who fled either to Iran or to Israel between 1946 and 1960. In the mid-1940 almost a quarter of Baghdad’s population consisted of Iraqi Jews. Today, however only 310 are left. It is not clear whether or not any of the exiled Jews will be able to reclaim their Iraqi nationality. A further 1.2 million Iraqis, mostly Shiites, were driven into Iran between 1968 and 1975 on the pretext that they were of Iranian origin. Many have become naturalized Iranians and integrated into Iranian society. Some have prominent positions in Iranian government, including the current Chief Justice of the Islamic Republic.
One estimate puts the number of expatriate Iraqis at around 4.5 million. Although the new Iraqi regime accepts double nationality, it is not clear how many of those will be allowed to actually vote or sand for election.
The final voters’ register may run into 16 million names. Even if half of those registered turn up to vote, the coming Iraqi election would still be one of the largest demonstrations of people’s power in action in the Arab world.
Who Will Monitor the Iraqi Elections
Since the United Nations is directly involved in holding the elections it cannot also monitor it. The following organizations have been invited to do that job:
* The European Union
* The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
* The Non-Aligned Movement
* The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC)
* The Arab League
* The Inter-Parliamentary Union
* The Foundation for the Advancement of Democracy
* The Jimmy Carter Center