JEDDAH/BAGHDAD, 7 November 2004 — Leaders of Iraq’s religious parties have emerged as the country’s most popular politicians and would win the largest share of votes if an election were held today, while the US-backed government of interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is losing ground, according to a US-financed poll by the International Republican Institute.
More than 45 percent of Iraqis also believe that their country is heading in the wrong direction, and 41 percent say it is moving in the right direction.
Within the Bush administration, a victory by Iraq’s religious parties is viewed as the worst-case scenario. Washington has hoped that Allawi and the current team, which was selected by US and UN envoys, would win or do well in Iraq’s first democratic election, in January.
US officials believe a secular government led by moderates is critical, in part because the new government will oversee writing a new Iraqi constitution.
US officials acknowledge that the political honeymoon after the handover of political power on June 28 ended earlier than anticipated. The new poll, based on 2,000 face-to-face interviews conducted among all ethnic and religious groups nationwide between Sept. 24 and Oct. 4, shows that Iraqi support for the interim government has plummeted to about 43 percent who believe it is effective, down from 62 percent in a late-summer poll.
A senior State Department official played down the results. “When the interim government took over, the [poll] numbers were artificially high. It’s very difficult to meet expectations when they’re sky-high,” he said on the condition of anonymity because the data are still being analyzed.
Interim Prime Minister Allawi himself says he is satisfied with the polls. “Are there many Arab countries whose governments are supported by 43 percent of their population in conditions that we face in Iraq today?” he asks with a twinkle in his eye.
But in another blow, one out of three Iraqis blames the US-led multinational force for Iraq’s security problems, slightly more than the 32 percent who blame foreign terrorists, the poll shows. Only eight percent blame members of the deposed regime. This shows that very few Iraqis believe that remnants of Saddam Hussein’s party and state would be capable of exerting much influence, negative or positive, on the course of events in post-liberation Iraq.
In positive news for the Allawi government, the poll found that 85 percent of Iraqis are keen to vote in the January election. Women are especially keen to vote and stand for election and their turnout could reach 90 percent in some localities.
Despite the current strife, about two-thirds of Iraqis do not believe civil war is imminent, the poll found. Asked if their households had been hurt by violence, injuries, death or monetary loss over the past year, only 22 percent of those questioned said yes — a figure that surprised pollsters and US officials.
With voter registration beginning on Nov. 1, the poll found that 64 percent of Iraqis are still unwilling to align with any party, which US officials attribute to the legacy of the Ba’ath Party. The most valuable indicators, officials say, may be the data on Iraq’s politicians.
The poll found the most popular politician is Abdul Aziz Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). The group was part of the US-backed opposition to Saddam Hussein and is now receiving millions of dollars in aid from Iran, US officials say.
Hakim had 80 percent name recognition among Iraqis, with more than 51 percent wanting to see him in the National Assembly, which will pick a new government.
Allawi had the greatest name recognition of any politician, with 47 percent of Iraqis supporting him for a seat in the new parliament. But rebel Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr came in a very close third, with 46 percent backing him for an assembly seat.
Ahmed Chalabi, once favored in Washington as a possible successor to Hussein, had wide national recognition, but only 15 percent want him in Parliament — and more than half oppose him.
The one factor that skews the poll, analysts said, is that Ibrahim Jaafari, the Dawa Party chief and current vice president, was not included. He had the highest popularity rating in previous polls.
That may still be the case, since almost 18 percent of Iraqis surveyed by IRI said they were most likely to vote for Dawa candidates — the largest backing among the top 11 parties listed. Dawa is another former US-backed group supported by aid from Iran, US officials say.
US officials and Iraqi analysts believe candidates aligned with the Supreme Council and with Dawa are likely to capture the highest percentage of votes, giving religious parties an edge in forming a new government. Iraqi President Ghazi Yawar, a Sunni leader of the country’s largest tribe, was also omitted from the poll.
The poll did not cover the parts of Iraq where Kurds form a majority of the population. There, the two major parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have already concluded an electoral alliance and are expected to sweep the polls in conjunction with a number of smaller groups. Under the new proposed constitution one of the vie-presidents will have to be a Kurd.