OPEC Oil Shipments Up, Stocks at Sea Swell

LONDON, 14 November 2004 — OPEC oil shipments rose in the four weeks to Nov. 27, swelling an already large yearly surplus of seaborne supply heading to consuming nations, an oil shipping analyst has said.

Forward ship chartering shows the OPEC organization’s crude oil exports in the period jumped 290,000 bpd to 24.52 million bpd, up from 24.23 million in the period to Oct. 30, said Roy Mason of consultancy Oil Movements.

That swelled oil in transit from OPEC producers by 1.3 million barrels over the same timeframe to 428.28 million barrels at sea. Crude oil exports currently on the water are a whopping 28 million barrels higher than late November last year, he said.

“It’s all pretty bearish. And for the US the prospect of rising crude imports hitting US shores next month, mid-month, is definitely bearish,” Mason told Reuters.

“By mid-December, incoming long-haul barrels for the North American market should be climbing back towards mid-year peak levels.”

Mason said long-haul arrivals into the United States are forecast to rise 170,000 bpd to 6.61 million bpd in the four weeks to Dec. 4, up from 6.44 million bpd to Nov. 13.

Strong supply from OPEC, which is pumping at the highest level in 25 years, has already helped push up US crude stocks for the last seven weeks and bring prices down 15 percent from record highs.

Mason said sailings from OPEC producers in the Gulf rose 180,000 bpd to 17.73 million bpd in the four weeks to Nov. 27, with most of the increase heading West. Asian sailings actually dipped in the same period.

He said spot charter bookings from the Gulf leaped 1.28 million bpd for the whole month of November to 8.512 million bpd, up from 7.232 million bpd for the month of October.

Last week, Mason reported OPEC exports or sailings jumping 260,000 million bpd to 24.57 million bpd, up from 24.31 million bpd to Oct. 23.

Saudi Arabia told its main Japanese and South Korean buyers it would supply them with full contractual volumes. Saudi Arabia’s allocations to other parts of the globe were also steady compared with November.