CALCUTTA, 28 November 2004 — Hectic preparations are under way for the first meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao.

Wen and Manmohan are scheduled to meet in Vientiane, Laos, on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations conference beginning today.

Analysts say their maiden interaction will hold the key to bilateral relations between nuclear-armed neighbors in the days ahead.

“The importance of the meeting between the two leaders cannot be over-emphasized. Personal chemistry apart, their approach to contentious issues like the unresolved border dispute or Tibet’s militarization will shape the foreign policies of the world’s two most-populous nations”, said a Western diplomat who closely monitors India-China relations.

Manmohan was catapulted to prime ministership after the fall of former premier Atal Behari Vajpayee’s government. The quiet, unassuming economist-turned-civil servant who entered politics only in 1991 is known for his proximity to Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi. Foreign Ministry spokesman, Navtej Sarna, said yesterday the two sides are busy finalizing a slot for the much-awaited rendezvous between Wen and Manmohan.

“As there is no fixed agenda, they will take an overview of bilateral issues as well as current regional and international affairs”, said Sarna without elaborating.

Analysts say that obstacles in the ongoing border negotiations between National Security Adviser J.N. Dixit and Chinese Foreign Affairs Vice Minister Dai Bingguo are bound to figure in their talks. Dai and Dixit held a fourth round of talks in Beijing last week to resolve a festering territorial dispute over which the two nations went to war in 1962.

In 2003, both sides agreed in principle to swap land to resolve the border row but implementing it is proving difficult. “Beijing’s insistence that India hand over Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh to clinch a peace deal is not acceptable to New Delhi. I understand that Dr. Singh is going to make India’s stand clear to Wen”, said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at New Delhi’s Center for Policy Research.

China claims about 90,000 sq km in India’s eastern region, including most of Arunachal Pradesh, as its territory. India claims about 33,000 sq km in the Aksai Chin region in the west, bordering Jammu and Kashmir, which is under Chinese control.

Analysts say the exchange formula is not as acceptable to the present government as it was to the Vajpayee government.

“The new government is more level-headed than the previous government which had a propensity to act on the personal whims and fancies of Vajpayee”, Chellaney said. But other experts believe that Vajpayee’s trip to China last year — the first by an Indian premier in more than a decade — was the turning point in relations which had been frosty since India’s defeat in the 1962 border war.

They say that the most positive outcome of Vajpayee’s talks with Premier Wen was the appointment of India’s national security adviser and China’s foreign affairs vice minister to resolve the border dispute.

Moreover, China acknowledged Indian sovereignty over Sikkim and India reciprocated by accepting Chinese control of Tibet. The political representatives have met four times — twice after the fall of Vajpayee’s government — but there is no solution in sight apparently because India’s new regime is not willing to risk the domestic fallout of concessions to China.

Also likely to figure in the Vientiane talks is the reopening of the Tibet-Sikkim trade route through Nathu La, used by traders and travelers until its closure after the 1962 war.

Wen and Vajpayee signed an agreement to revive the centuries-old Silk route but Manmohan’s government is reviewing its security implications, testing China’s patience. Beijing is very keen on reopening of the trade route. A senior Indian diplomat said Manmohan is “ready to walk the extra mile for peace but without compromising India’s strategic or economic interests”.

Describing Manmohan as a “hard-boiled realist”, the veteran diplomat said he is a firm believer in the Buddhist vision of peace between India and China — based on principles of mutual respect and peaceful coexistence.