While fluctuating gasoline prices, daily Iraqi casualty reports, and questions on the effectiveness of the Bush administration’s war on terrorism dominated American media in September, important, unnoticed stories from the Arab world emerged which should have been noted by decision-makers in Washington. One such story took place in Yemen.
Last week Yemen conducted its first multiparty presidential election, while simultaneously holding competitive local elections. In a country which has battled extremism and separatism, possesses limited natural resources, struggles with poverty, and in general has toiled mightily to gain footing in the global economy, Yemen’s decision to hold elections was in itself significant. That international observers, led by the European Union, concluded that the elections were free and fair is all the more noteworthy.
By any comparison, Yemen’s elections were successful. As an international observer, I and others were impressed by the degree of sophistication in which the elections were managed.
The voting lists, for example, had been recently updated and featured photo identification — something which even the US electoral system lacks. Debate, particularly between President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his main opponent, Faisal bin Shamlan, was open and lacked neither vitriol, nor passion.
Naturally, in a country where the populace is not as politically experienced, problems did emerge. With only 25 percent of the population residing in towns, where basic services such as education and access to the media are commonplace, there were reports of electoral improprieties in the countryside. But given the realities of Yemen, these problems were relatively minor and did not undermine the integrity of the elections.
Yemen is a poor nation that sits in a key geographic location. As part of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen, which is not a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, is an economically bleak sister compared to its Arab neighbors. Sitting on the Red Sea, it is also, by extension, a part of the African Horn, an area which continues on a downward spiral — where stable, healthy states are outnumbered by failed and failing nations. Yemen sits in the heart — or at least a hub — of instability where the war on terror will ultimately be won or lost.
Yemen has long been “hot” — a nation that has fought itself and had factions within it serve as proxies in larger struggles, including the Cold War. But to its credit, Yemen has maintained stability despite the hardships it has faced since North and South Yemen united in 1990. Since opposing the military eviction of Saddam Hussein from Kuwait — which resulted in massive economic turmoil — Yemen has steered a moderate course internationally. Working with Saudi Arabia, it resolved a border dispute which long threatened Arabian harmony. In wake of the attack on the USS Cole in Aden and the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, it joined hands with the international community as a full partner against terrorism.
These wise moves enabled Yemen to turn to its daunting internal challenges. Unlike other Arab states that have modernized in large part by educating their publics, urbanizing, and implementing national development plans, Yemen has long been hamstrung by a weak central government. This helps explain why Yemen lags in most key development indexes — electricity, literacy rate, poverty, and industrialization.
In this context, the elections last week were of enormous consequence. While President Ali Abdullah Saleh has led the nation since 1979, his victory, and that of his ruling General People’s Congress, in a contested election provides his government with legitimization to continue on the path of internal modernization and external moderation which has characterized the last decade of Yemeni political life.
Of course, elections in themselves are not solutions to the myriad of problems Yemen confronts. Most problematic perhaps is the fact that the nation is quickly running out of oil and water. Oil accounts for a large percentage of Yemen’s export base and comprises a large percentage of state revenue. Without water, Yemen’s agricultural sector — a strength since before Roman times — will be irreparably undermined.
Without oil and agriculture revenue, Yemen’s stability could, like its neighbors on the Horn of Africa, be shaken. Thus, one of Yemen’s goals is to garner international and regional recognition and, in so doing, obtain massive amounts of international assistance. This, it is hoped, will enable it to modernize and enter the international marketplace.
Yemen’s leaders specifically mention the importance of working with GCC, the US and European Union. Of these, it sees cooperation with the GCC as most critical.
A key goal of the election process is to firmly establish that Yemen is a beacon of reform and stability. It remains to be seen whether this will be the case. Unfortunately, while Yemen illustrated a positive step in governance, it was overshadowed by the coup in Thailand, the rhetorical fistfight between the US, Hugo Chavez, and Iran, and the ongoing troika of gas prices, Iraq, and Bush’s management of the war on terror.
Fortunately, there was a sizable international delegation present in Sana’a to tell Yemen’s tale. It is a story in which beleaguered US policymakers, who supposedly see democratization in the Arab world as a priority, could take pride. US taxpayer dollars, after all, funded the work of NDI and other NGOs who helped the government develop the election system; strengthened political parties, including the Islamist Islah Party; and assisted a key Arab ally in implementing its chosen path toward development.
— David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group. E-mail: [email protected]
