VIENNA, 17 October 2006 — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said yesterday it had revised down its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2006 by 100,000 barrels per day. But the 11-member exporters’ group, which is to hold an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss falling oil prices, said it had left its forecast for growth in 2007 unchanged. “In light of preliminary data for the first three quarters of 2006, world oil demand growth was revised down by 0.1 mbd (million barrels per day) for 2006,” the organization said in its monthly report for October issued here.
The new estimates showed that world oil demand in 2006 was expected to be on average 1.0 million barrels per day (bpd) higher than in 2005, instead of the previously expected 1.1 million bpd.
Demand was expected to average 84.2 million bpd over the year, an increase of 1.2 percent. The October report said lower demand was due in part to “warm weather, higher oil prices and the relatively-lower natural gas prices,” especially in OECD countries. “Robust US oil demand growth in September was not sufficient to offset the decline seen in the first two months,” OPEC added.
Oil demand growth for OECD countries was revised down by 300,000 bpd in the third quarter but was expected to recover in the fourth quarter. Strong economic growth in China and the Middle East had helped boost third quarter oil demand compared to last year, the report said.
The world oil demand growth forecast for 2007 however “remains unchanged at a moderate rate of 1.3 mbd or 1.5 percent,” with China and the Middle East expected to add 420,000 bpd and 300,000 bpd respectively. Supply from non-OPEC countries is also set to increase next year, rising to 53 million bpd, up 1.8 million bpd from 2006, the organization also said.